Trabzonspor
vs
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Trabzonspor 2–1 Beşiktaş
The model makes it 40% Trabzonspor, 28% draw, 32% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.70, Beşiktaş 1.39.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Trabzonspor are 7th on 10 points from 6 games; Beşiktaş are 3rd on 12 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Trabzonspor have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Galatasaray.
- Beşiktaş have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Amed.
- Last 6 meetings: Beşiktaş 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Beşiktaş 1–2 Trabzonspor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 40% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
- W2-1Başakşehir23 August 2026
Beşiktaş
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
What these results say
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beşiktaş conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
- 9 May 2026Beşiktaş 1–2 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 14 December 2025Trabzonspor 3–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 15 February 2025Beşiktaş 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 15 September 2024Trabzonspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 23 May 2024Beşiktaş 3–2 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 4 February 2024Beşiktaş 2–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor
- Mohamed Salah7 goals2 assists
- P. Onuachu2 goals
Beşiktaş
- D. Vlahović5 goals
- V. Černý2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Trabzonspor carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.9 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.39 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Trabzonspor rate 1.04 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.09 and 0.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Beşiktaş, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Trabzonspor a 10.2% chance of the title and Beşiktaş 17.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Trabzonspor against 1.39 for Beşiktaş. Trabzonspor's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.98 for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Trabzonspor at home · Beşiktaş away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Trabzonspor 6, Beşiktaş 6.
Trabzonspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Trabzonspor
- vs Heart of Midlothian22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- at Rizespor26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Gaziantep FK1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 55%
Beşiktaş
- vs Crystal Palace22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 49%
- vs Başakşehir26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Kasımpaşa1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.