Kocaelispor
vs
Rizespor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kocaelispor 1–0 Rizespor
The model makes it 43% Kocaelispor, 30% draw, 27% Rizespor — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.28, Rizespor 0.90.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kocaelispor are 7th on 12 points from 7 games; Rizespor are 11th on 10 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Kocaelispor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Beşiktaş.
- Rizespor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Çorum FK.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 February 2026, ended Rizespor 2–0 Kocaelispor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kocaelispor at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Rizespor
Kocaelispor
- L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
Rizespor
- L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
- L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
- L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
What these results say
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rizespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kocaelispor
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
Rizespor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor
- 20 February 2026Rizespor 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 21 September 2025Kocaelispor 1–1 RizesporSüper Lig
- 18 July 2021Rizespor 2–3 KocaelisporFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Rizespor
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- E. Bulut21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kocaelispor carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.57 for Rizespor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Kocaelispor and 0.90 for Rizespor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kocaelispor rate 0.60 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rizespor rate 0.74 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kocaelispor a 0.1% chance of the title and Rizespor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kocaelispor the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kocaelispor against 0.90 for Rizespor. Kocaelispor's attack/defence rating is 0.6/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.29 for Rizespor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kocaelispor at home · Rizespor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KocaelisporRizespor
Kocaelispor are 7th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Rizespor are 10th after 8 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kocaelispor 7, Rizespor 8.
Rizespor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kocaelispor
- at Eyüpspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
- vs Fenerbahçe21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 22%
- at Çorum FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 24%
Rizespor
- vs Erzurumspor FK8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 46%
- at Amed21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 18%
- vs Kasımpaşa27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Galatasaray4 Dec · Süper Ligwin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.