Kocaelispor
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kocaelispor 1–0 Göztepe
The model makes it 40% Kocaelispor, 31% draw, 29% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.35, Göztepe 0.96.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Kocaelispor are 4th on 12 points from 6 games; Göztepe are 17th on 3 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Kocaelispor have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Gaziantep FK.
- Göztepe have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Rizespor.
- Last 4 meetings: Kocaelispor 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Kocaelispor 1–1 Göztepe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kocaelispor at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Kocaelispor
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
- W2-0Amed24 August 2026
Göztepe
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
- L0-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.23 August 2026
What these results say
- Kocaelispor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kocaelispor had two goals or fewer.
- Göztepe did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Göztepe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Göztepe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 |
| 17 | Göztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
- 18 April 2026Kocaelispor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 23 November 2025Göztepe 0–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 3 April 2024Kocaelispor 3–2 Göztepe1. Lig
- 4 November 2023Göztepe 0–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Göztepe
Kocaelispor
- B. Kutlu2 goals1 assist
Göztepe
- Juan4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kocaelispor carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.6 for Göztepe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Kocaelispor and 0.96 for Göztepe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kocaelispor rate 0.58 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Göztepe rate 0.84 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kocaelispor a 0.6% chance of the title and Göztepe 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kocaelispor the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kocaelispor against 0.96 for Göztepe. Kocaelispor's attack/defence rating is 0.58/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.4 for Göztepe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kocaelispor at home · Göztepe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kocaelispor 6, Göztepe 6.
Kocaelispor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Göztepe have let in 2 there.
Göztepe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kocaelispor
- at Alanyaspor23 Oct · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Rizespor31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Eyüpspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- vs Fenerbahçe21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
Göztepe
- vs Çorum FK25 Oct · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Fenerbahçe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 17%
- vs Başakşehir7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
- at Erzurumspor FK22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.