Coritiba
vs
Vitoria
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Coritiba 2–1 Vitoria
The model makes it 43% Coritiba, 27% draw, 30% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.57, Vitoria 1.21.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Coritiba are 11th on 39 points from 30 games; Vitoria are 12th on 36 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Coritiba have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Botafogo.
- Vitoria have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sao Paulo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coritiba vs Vitoria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Coritiba vs Vitoria
Coritiba
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Fluminense9 October 2026
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
Vitoria
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
- W4-0Chapecoense7 October 2026
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
What these results say
- Coritiba did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Vitoria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitoria had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Vitoria
- 2 May 2026Vitoria 4–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 22 September 2021Vitoria 0–0 CoritibaSerie B
- 23 June 2021Coritiba 1–0 VitoriaSerie B
- 30 November 2019Vitoria 1–2 CoritibaSerie B
- 27 August 2019Coritiba 1–1 VitoriaSerie B
- 28 August 2017Coritiba 0–1 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Vitoria
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Coritiba carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.61 for Vitoria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Coritiba and 1.21 for Vitoria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Coritiba rate 0.82 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitoria rate 0.74 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coritiba the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.21 for Vitoria. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.21 for Vitoria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Coritiba at home · Vitoria away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Coritiba 30, Vitoria 30.
Vitoria score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Coritiba have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Coritiba
- at Internacional4 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Santos18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Bahia22 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
Vitoria
- vs Fluminense6 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
- vs RB Bragantino18 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- at Internacional22 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.