Atletico Paranaense
vs
Palmeiras
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Palmeiras
The model makes it 34% Atletico Paranaense, 30% draw, 36% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.22, Palmeiras 1.26.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 49 points from 28 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 57 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bahia.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Gremio.
- Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
- 19 April 2026Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 1 September 2024Atletico Paranaense 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 12 May 2024Palmeiras 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 5 November 2023Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 2 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 October 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Paranaense carry a model rating of 6.83 against 7.02 for Palmeiras. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.26 for Palmeiras. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Paranaense rate 1.03 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palmeiras rate 1.04 and 0.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Paranaense a 0.2% chance of the title and Palmeiras 29.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.26 for Palmeiras. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.75 for Palmeiras.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Paranaense at home · Palmeiras away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Paranaense 28, Palmeiras 28.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (11 goals); Palmeiras have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Paranaense
- at Vitoria25 Oct · Serie Awin 39%
- at Gremio28 Oct · Serie Awin 36%
- vs Vasco da Gama4 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
Palmeiras
- vs Fluminense20 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 50%
- vs RB Bragantino25 Oct · Serie Awin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.