Frosinone
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Frosinone 1–0 Lecce
The model makes it 50% Frosinone, 28% draw, 22% Lecce — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.56, Lecce 0.86.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Frosinone: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from 6 games; Lecce are 13th on 6 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Napoli.
- Lecce have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bologna.
- Last 6 meetings: Lecce 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2024, ended Frosinone 1–1 Lecce.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Frosinone vs Lecce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Frosinone at 50% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Frosinone vs Lecce
Frosinone
- L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
Lecce
- L1-2Bologna11 October 2026
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lecce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lecce had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Lecce
- 3 March 2024Frosinone 1–1 LecceSerie A
- 16 December 2023Lecce 2–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 2 April 2022Lecce 1–0 FrosinoneSerie B
- 20 November 2021Frosinone 0–0 LecceSerie B
- 20 March 2021Frosinone 0–3 LecceSerie B
- 12 December 2020Lecce 2–2 FrosinoneSerie B
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Lecce
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo40
- G. Kvernadze31
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Frosinone carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.66 for Lecce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Frosinone and 0.86 for Lecce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Frosinone rate 1.03 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lecce rate 0.74 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Frosinone a 0.5% chance of the title and Lecce 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Frosinone against 0.86 for Lecce. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.09 for Lecce.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Frosinone at home · Lecce away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FrosinoneLecce
Frosinone are 9th after 6 Serie A matches (between 4th and 17th so far); Lecce are 12th after 6 (between 2nd and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Frosinone 6, Lecce 6.
Frosinone score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Lecce have let in 0 there.
Lecce score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Frosinone have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Frosinone
- vs Torino1 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
- at Cagliari7 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at AC Milan22 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Lecce
- vs Genoa1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Torino7 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Lazio21 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.