Botafogo
vs
Chapecoense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Botafogo 2–1 Chapecoense
The model makes it 51% Botafogo, 26% draw, 23% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Botafogo 2.17, Chapecoense 1.04.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Botafogo are 12th on 35 points from 28 games; Chapecoense are bottom on 18 points from 27 games — Serie A.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Mirassol.
- Chapecoense have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Botafogo 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended Chapecoense 2–0 Botafogo.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Botafogo vs Chapecoense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 51% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botafogo vs Chapecoense
Botafogo
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
Chapecoense
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro19 September 2026
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Chapecoense
- 14 May 2026Chapecoense 2–0 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
- 21 April 2026Botafogo 1–0 ChapecoenseCopa Do Brasil
- 18 April 2026Chapecoense 1–4 BotafogoSerie A
- 27 November 2019Chapecoense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 26 August 2019Botafogo 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 15 November 2018Chapecoense 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Chapecoense
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos9 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assist
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.51 for Chapecoense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Botafogo and 1.04 for Chapecoense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.90 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chapecoense rate 0.77 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Botafogo against 1.04 for Chapecoense. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.53 for Chapecoense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Botafogo at home · Chapecoense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Botafogo 28, Chapecoense 27.
Botafogo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Chapecoense have let in 9 there.
Chapecoense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Botafogo have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Botafogo
- at Internacional25 Oct · Serie Awin 32%
- at Remo28 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Atletico Mineiro4 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Chapecoense
- vs Fluminense25 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at RB Bragantino28 Oct · Serie Awin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.