Atletico Mineiro
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 45% Atletico Mineiro, 27% draw, 28% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 1.59, Cruzeiro 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 47 points from 30 games; Cruzeiro are 6th on 48 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Mineiro are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to RB Bragantino.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Mineiro 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Atletico Mineiro 2–1 Cruzeiro.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 45% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro
- W2-1Santos11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
- W1-0RB Bragantino3 October 2026
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
Cruzeiro
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo8 October 2026
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro
- 2 September 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- 26 August 2026Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico MineiroCopa Do Brasil
- 3 May 2026Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 8 March 2026Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico MineiroMineiro - 1
- 25 January 2026Atletico Mineiro 2–1 CruzeiroMineiro - 1
- 16 October 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Cruzeiro
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Pereira95
- Kaio Jorge82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.81 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.14 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Mineiro rate 0.89 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.03 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 1.14 for Cruzeiro. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.13 for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Mineiro at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Mineiro 30, Cruzeiro 30.
Atletico Mineiro score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 2 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Mineiro
- at Botafogo5 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Mirassol18 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Cruzeiro
- vs Bahia6 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- vs Palmeiras18 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Chapecoense22 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.