Fiorentina
vs
Atalanta
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fiorentina 0–1 Atalanta
The model makes it 29% Fiorentina, 28% draw, 43% Atalanta — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.14, Atalanta 1.53.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Atalanta: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points from 6 games; Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Fiorentina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Genoa.
- Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Venezia.
- Last 6 meetings: Atalanta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 May 2026, ended Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Fiorentina
- L1-2away to Genoa10 October 2026
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
Atalanta
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
- 22 May 2026Fiorentina 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 30 November 2025Atalanta 2–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 30 March 2025Fiorentina 1–0 AtalantaSerie A
- 15 September 2024Atalanta 3–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2 June 2024Atalanta 2–3 FiorentinaSerie A
- 24 April 2024Atalanta 4–1 FiorentinaCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Atalanta
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Franco Mastantuono30
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fiorentina carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.05 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Fiorentina and 1.53 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fiorentina rate 1.05 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.17 and 0.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fiorentina a 0% chance of the title and Atalanta 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fiorentina against 1.53 for Atalanta. Fiorentina's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.78 for Atalanta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fiorentina at home · Atalanta away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FiorentinaAtalanta
Fiorentina are 18th after 6 Serie A matches (between 15th and 20th so far); Atalanta are 10th after 6 (between 4th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fiorentina 6, Atalanta 6.
Atalanta score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Fiorentina have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fiorentina
- at Sassuolo2 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Juventus8 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
- at Monza23 Nov · Serie Awin 43%
Atalanta
- vs Parma2 Nov · Serie Awin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.