Atletico Mineiro
vs
Coritiba
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Mineiro 2–0 Coritiba
The model makes it 49% Atletico Mineiro, 27% draw, 24% Coritiba — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 1.92, Coritiba 0.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 43 points from 28 games; Coritiba are 9th on 38 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Mineiro are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to RB Bragantino.
- Coritiba are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Vasco da Gama.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Mineiro 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Coritiba 2–0 Atletico Mineiro.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 49% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba
Atletico Mineiro
- W1-0RB Bragantino3 October 2026
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
Coritiba
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 43 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba
- 19 April 2026Coritiba 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 8 October 2023Atletico Mineiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 20 May 2023Coritiba 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 14 August 2022Coritiba 0–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 24 April 2022Atletico Mineiro 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 26 December 2020Atletico Mineiro 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Coritiba
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assist
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.62 for Coritiba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.97 for Coritiba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Mineiro rate 0.86 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coritiba rate 0.88 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 0.97 for Coritiba. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.42 for Coritiba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Mineiro at home · Coritiba away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Mineiro 28, Coritiba 28.
Atletico Mineiro score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Coritiba have let in 12 there.
Coritiba score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Mineiro
- at Atletico Torque21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 42%
- at Flamengo25 Oct · Serie Awin 20%
Coritiba
- vs Gremio25 Oct · Serie Awin 42%
- vs Vitoria28 Oct · Serie Awin 45%
- at Internacional4 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.