Gremio
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Gremio 1–0 Bahia
The model makes it 39% Gremio, 28% draw, 33% Bahia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.41, Bahia 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,193 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Gremio's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Bahia's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,096 matches.
Key facts
- Gremio are 18th on 37 points from 34 games; Bahia are 6th on 53 points from 33 games — Serie A.
- Gremio have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Bahia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Sao Paulo.
- Last 6 meetings: Bahia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Bahia 1–1 Gremio.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gremio vs Bahia
Has the model earned this number?
Gremio at 39%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Bahia
Gremio
Serie A
- L1-3away to Flamengo4 November 2026
- W2-0Atletico Paranaense30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba26 October 2026
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
Bahia
Serie A
- W3-2Sao Paulo29 October 2026
- D1-1away to Santos25 October 2026
- L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
What these results say
- Gremio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 42 | +6 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gremio
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 54% today
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Gremio
Bahia and Gremio have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bahia has won 3 of them to Gremio's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Bahia on 17 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| Gremio | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 May 2026
Serie ABahia 1–1 Gremio - 19 Oct 2025
Serie ABahia 4–0 Gremio - 25 May 2025
Serie AGremio 1–0 Bahia - 17 Aug 2024
Serie AGremio 0–2 Bahia - 28 Apr 2024
Serie ABahia 1–0 Gremio - 4 Nov 2023
Serie AGremio 1–0 Bahia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bahia's attack rates 18% above Gremio's, and Bahia concede 5% fewer than Gremio. That gives Bahia the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Gremio and Bahia
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bahia (6th, with Gremio 18th), while our numbers lean to Gremio. Gremio rate 0.79 in attack and 1.19 in defence, Bahia 0.93 and 1.13 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gremio the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gremio against 1.24 for Bahia. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.13 for Bahia.
How the model reaches 39% for Gremio to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gremio to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Gremio's ratings take away 3 points and Bahia's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Gremio's ratings42%−3
- Bahia's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gremio at home · Bahia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Gremio 34, Bahia 33.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (15 goals); Gremio have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gremio
- at Santos24 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- at Corinthians29 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Mirassol2 Dec · Serie Awin 42%
Bahia
- vs Coritiba21 Nov · Serie Awin 57%
- at Botafogo29 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Atletico Mineiro2 Dec · Serie Awin 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.