Palmeiras
vs
Remo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 2–0 Remo
The model makes it 68% Palmeiras, 21% draw, 11% Remo — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.18, Remo 0.58.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Palmeiras are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Palmeiras's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Remo's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Palmeiras are 2nd on 66 points from 31 games; Remo are 19th on 26 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Atletico Paranaense.
- Remo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to RB Bragantino.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Remo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 68% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Remo
Palmeiras
- W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
- W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
Remo
- D1-1RB Bragantino18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Vasco da Gama10 October 2026
- D1-1Gremio7 October 2026
- L1-2Santos19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia14 September 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Remo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Remo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Remo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | +32 | 66 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Remo
- 10 May 2026Remo 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Remo
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López95
- Maurício81
Remo
GoalsAssists
- Jája Silva81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.57 for Remo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Palmeiras and 0.58 for Remo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 1.09 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Remo rate 0.73 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 36.8% chance of the title and Remo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.58 for Remo. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.27 for Remo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Palmeiras at home · Remo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Palmeiras 31, Remo 31.
Remo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Palmeiras
- at Cruzeiro18 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- vs Flamengo22 Nov · Serie Awin 42%
- at Chapecoense29 Nov · Serie Awin 61%
Remo
- vs Chapecoense18 Nov · Serie Awin 54%
- at Atletico Paranaense22 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
- at Sao Paulo29 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.