Corinthians
vs
Mirassol
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Corinthians 1–0 Mirassol
The model makes it 40% Corinthians, 29% draw, 31% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.32, Mirassol 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Corinthians are 16th on 32 points from 30 games; Mirassol are 15th on 33 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Corinthians have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Palmeiras.
- Mirassol have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bahia.
- Last 6 meetings: Corinthians 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Corinthians vs Mirassol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Corinthians vs Mirassol
Corinthians
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Internacional7 October 2026
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
Mirassol
- L0-1away to Bahia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to RB Bragantino7 October 2026
- W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
What these results say
- Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Mirassol
- 3 May 2026Mirassol 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 5 October 2025Corinthians 3–0 MirassolSerie A
- 10 May 2025Mirassol 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 2 March 2025Corinthians 2–0 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 19 February 2023Corinthians 3–0 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 11 February 2022Corinthians 2–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Corinthians carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.7 for Mirassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Corinthians and 1.09 for Mirassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Corinthians rate 0.74 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mirassol rate 0.83 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mirassol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corinthians the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Corinthians against 1.09 for Mirassol. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.13 for Mirassol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Corinthians at home · Mirassol away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Corinthians 30, Mirassol 30.
Corinthians score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Mirassol have let in 5 there.
Mirassol score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Corinthians have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Corinthians
- at Sao Paulo5 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Botafogo18 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
- at Atletico Mineiro22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Mirassol
- at Chapecoense3 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Atletico Mineiro18 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- at Fluminense22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.