Dundalk
vs
Shamrock Rovers
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Dundalk 1–2 Shamrock Rovers
The model makes it 28% Dundalk, 26% draw, 46% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dundalk 1.21, Shamrock Rovers 1.72.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Shamrock Rovers: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Dundalk are 6th on 41 points from 33 games; Shamrock Rovers are top on 65 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Dundalk are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bohemians.
- Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bohemians.
- Last 6 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Shamrock Rovers 3–2 Dundalk.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
- L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
- L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
Shamrock Rovers
- W2-1Bohemians12 October 2026
- W3-1Drogheda United8 October 2026
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
What these results say
- Dundalk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 65 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
- 7 August 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–2 DundalkPremier Division
- 15 May 2026Dundalk 1–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 23 February 2026Shamrock Rovers 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 27 October 2024Dundalk 0–1 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 4 July 2024Shamrock Rovers 1–0 DundalkPremier Division
- 17 May 2024Dundalk 1–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1110
- G. Arubi73
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern106
- G. Burke83
- M. Noonan60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dundalk carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.43 for Shamrock Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Dundalk and 1.72 for Shamrock Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundalk rate 0.56 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shamrock Rovers rate 0.64 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundalk a 0% chance of the title and Shamrock Rovers 88.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shamrock Rovers the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dundalk against 1.72 for Shamrock Rovers. Dundalk's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.48 for Shamrock Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dundalk at home · Shamrock Rovers away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Dundalk 33, Shamrock Rovers 33.
Dundalk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Shamrock Rovers have let in 8 there.
Shamrock Rovers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Dundalk have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.