Villarreal
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 2–0 Espanyol
The model makes it 59% Villarreal, 23% draw, 18% Espanyol — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Villarreal 2.10, Espanyol 0.94.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Villarreal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; Espanyol are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Madrid.
- Espanyol are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Malaga.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Espanyol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Espanyol
Villarreal
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
Espanyol
- D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Espanyol
- 9 February 2026Villarreal 4–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 8 November 2025Espanyol 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 27 April 2025Villarreal 1–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 26 September 2024Espanyol 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 27 April 2023Villarreal 4–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 9 November 2022Espanyol 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Espanyol
Villarreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Gueye30
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.77 for Espanyol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Villarreal and 0.94 for Espanyol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.29 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Espanyol rate 0.84 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Villarreal a 0.1% chance of the title and Espanyol 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Villarreal against 0.94 for Espanyol. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1 for Espanyol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Espanyol away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VillarrealEspanyol
Villarreal are 10th after 8 La Liga matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Espanyol are 11th after 8 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Villarreal 8, Espanyol 8.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Espanyol have let in 0 there.
Espanyol score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Villarreal have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- vs Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Getafe8 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
Espanyol
- vs Deportivo La Coruna7 Nov · La Ligawin 40%
- at Athletic Club22 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Getafe29 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.