Livingston
vs
Ayr Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Livingston 2–0 Ayr Utd
The model makes it 55% Livingston, 25% draw, 20% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Livingston 2.24, Ayr Utd 0.90.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Livingston are 3rd on 13 points from 8 games; Ayr Utd are 8th on 8 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Livingston are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Raith Rovers.
- Ayr Utd have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stenhousemuir.
- Last 6 meetings: Livingston 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2025, ended Livingston 5–0 Ayr Utd.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Livingston vs Ayr Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livingston at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Livingston vs Ayr Utd
Livingston
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Arbroath29 August 2026
Ayr Utd
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
- L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Partick5 September 2026
- D1-1Morton29 August 2026
What these results say
- Livingston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Ayr Utd
- 18 April 2025Livingston 5–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 22 February 2025Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
- 21 December 2024Livingston 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 19 October 2024Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
- 19 August 2023Livingston 2–0 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
- 28 November 2020Livingston 4–0 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
The two sides
Livingston carry a model rating of 6.21 against 5.9 for Ayr Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Livingston and 0.90 for Ayr Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Livingston rate 0.54 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ayr Utd rate 0.38 and 2.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Livingston a 4.8% chance of the title and Ayr Utd 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livingston the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Livingston against 0.90 for Ayr Utd. Livingston's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.55 for Ayr Utd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Livingston at home · Ayr Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Livingston 8, Ayr Utd 8.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ayr Utd have let in 0 there.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Livingston have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Livingston
- vs Partick10 Oct · Championshipwin 38%
- at Dunfermline17 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Arbroath24 Oct · Championshipwin 39%
- at Stenhousemuir30 Oct · Championshipwin 25%
- at Inverness CT7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Ayr Utd
- vs Dunfermline10 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Partick16 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- at Morton24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Queen's Park31 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- at Arbroath7 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.