30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Zrinjski vs Valur Reykjavik UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom, Mostar
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Zrinjski 2-2 Valur Reykjavik.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Zrinjski, 15% draw, 12% Valur Reykjavik — fair odds of 1.37, 6.67 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Valur Reykjavik 1–0 Zrinjski (23 Jul) →

Valur Reykjavik went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zrinjski at 73% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zrinjski8%Draw89%Valur Reykjavik3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽N. Bilbija (pen)
11'
44'
⚽T. Haraldssonassist: P. Pedersen
45'
⚽T. Haraldssonassist: P. Pedersen
🔁K. Stapicout: P. Mamic
46'
🔁A. Ilicout: K. Abramovic
46'
46'
🔁P. Pedersenout: D. Gardarson
🔁M. Cavarout: D. Lagumdzija
59'
🔁M. Cuicout: T. Juric
59'
Karlo Abramović
65'
🔁M. Cuzeout: M. Sakota
74'
74'
🔁A. Skoglundout: K. Arnarsson
75'
🔁L. Heimissonout: B. Antonsson
⚽M. Sakota
75'
82'
🔁B. Heimissonout: J. Palsson
⚽Nemanja Bilbija (pen)
88'
90+6'
Myles Veldman
90+2'
🔁J. Jonssonout: I. Stole

Line-ups

Zrinjski 4-2-3-1
  • 31Z. SubaricG
  • 21V. GrbicD
  • 27S. JakovljevicD
  • 4H. Barisic
  • 15K. StapicD
  • 10M. CuicM
  • 20A. IvancicM
  • 17A. IlicM
  • 42M. CavarM
  • 25M. CuzeM
  • 99N. BilbijaF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BogdanG
  • 44A. DjakovicG
  • 5D. LagumdzijaM
  • 8I. VidovicM
  • 11T. JuricF
  • 12P. MamicD
  • 14M. SakotaM
  • 19M. VranjkovicD
  • 22A. NalicM
Coach: Simon Rozman
Valur Reykjavik 4-4-1-1
  • 18F. SchramG
  • 22B. HeimissonM
  • 4M. NakkimD
  • 15H. EyjolfssonD
  • 24M. Veldman
  • 8J. JonssonM
  • 28S. FridjonssonM
  • 14A. SkoglundM
  • 12T. HaraldssonM
  • 17L. HeimissonM
  • 9P. Pedersen
Substitutes
  • 95T. PeterssonG
  • 5K. ArnarssonM
  • 6B. AntonssonM
  • 11I. StoleD
  • 19D. GardarsonF
  • 21J. PalssonD
  • 29S. VeseliM
  • 25S. Agustsson
  • 26E. SigurbjornssonM
Coach: Christopher Brazell

Form going into Zrinjski vs Valur Reykjavik

Zrinjski

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Valur Reykjavik23 July 2026

Valur Reykjavik

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Zrinjski23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Zrinjski vs Valur Reykjavik

  • 23 July 2026Valur Reykjavik 1–0 ZrinjskiUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Zrinjski and Valur Reykjavik drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Zrinjski at 73% and given a draw 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: N. Bilbija (penalty) 11' for Zrinjski, T. Haraldsson 44' for Valur Reykjavik, T. Haraldsson 45' for Valur Reykjavik, M. Sakota 75' for Zrinjski.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.