30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Panathinaikos vs Paks UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Panathinaikos 2-2 Paks.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 55% Paks — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paks at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Panathinaikos4%Draw90%Paks6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Andor Lapu
35'
⚽M. Petoassist: K. Horvath
⚽A. Jagusic
44'
45+2'
János Szabó
46'
🔁A. Lapuout: B. Lenzser
57'
⚽M. Gyorfi
🔁A. Toubaout: R. Van Drongelen
61'
🔁A. Zarouryout: F. Pellistri
61'
🔁A. Jagusicout: E. Rastoder
66'
68'
Kevin Horváth
72'
🔁J. Szalaiout: D. Bode
73'
🔁M. Petoout: B. Toth
73'
🔁K. Horvathout: G. Gyurkits
🔁A. Gnezda Cerinout: P. Chirivella
76'
🔁S. Andinoout: V. Taborda
76'
85'
🔁M. Gyorfiout: B. Balogh
⚽E. Rastoderassist: S. de Vrij
85'
Triantafyllos Tsapras
89'

Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Paks

71%Possession29%
20Shots8
8On target4
8Corners5

Line-ups

Panathinaikos 4-3-3
  • 1I. PenaG
  • 19T. TsaprasD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 77G. KyriakopoulosD
  • 8A. JagusicM
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 16A. Gnezda CerinM
  • 11A. ZarouryF
  • 7A. Tetteh
  • 10S. AndinoF
Substitutes
  • 12L. ChavesG
  • 70K. Kotsaris
  • 4P. ChirivellaM
  • 55R. Van DrongelenD
  • 20V. TabordaF
  • 18S. KontourisM
  • 56V. LavdasD
  • 28F. PellistriM
  • 74E. RastoderF
Coach: Jacob Neestrup
Paks 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. KovacsikG
  • 12G. VasD
  • 30J. SzaboD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 6M. Gyorfi
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 17M. PetoF
  • 19K. HorvathF
  • 7J. Szalai
Substitutes
  • 25G. RaczG
  • 28M. GyetvanG
  • 13D. BodeF
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 5B. VecseiM
  • 24B. LenzserD
  • 29B. TothF
  • 26M. SzekszardiD
  • 11H. KuzmaD
Coach: Gyorgy Bognar

Form going into Panathinaikos vs Paks

Panathinaikos

  • W2-1away to Paks23 July 2026

Paks

  • W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
  • L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Panathinaikos and Paks in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1PanathinaikosSuper League 14400112+912
9PaksNB I72231517-28

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League 1 · NB I

Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Paks

  • 23 July 2026Paks 1–2 PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Paks

Panathinaikos

  • V. Taborda3 goals1 assists
  • A. Tetteh2 goals
  • K. Kangwa1 goals1 assists

Paks

  • J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
  • M. Pető3 goals
  • Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.