Panathinaikos vs Paks UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 2-2 Paks.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 55% Paks — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Paks 1–2 Panathinaikos (23 Jul) →
Panathinaikos went through 4–3 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 55% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Paks
Line-ups
- 1I. PenaG
- 19T. TsaprasD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 77G. KyriakopoulosD
- 8A. JagusicM
- 22E. CamaraM
- 16A. Gnezda CerinM
- 11A. ZarouryF
- 7A. Tetteh
- 10S. AndinoF
- 12L. ChavesG
- 70K. Kotsaris
- 4P. ChirivellaM
- 55R. Van DrongelenD
- 20V. TabordaF
- 18S. KontourisM
- 56V. LavdasD
- 28F. PellistriM
- 74E. RastoderF
- 1A. KovacsikG
- 12G. VasD
- 30J. SzaboD
- 20M. ZekeD
- 6M. Gyorfi
- 22J. WindeckerM
- 21K. PappM
- 4A. LapuM
- 17M. PetoF
- 19K. HorvathF
- 7J. Szalai
- 25G. RaczG
- 28M. GyetvanG
- 13D. BodeF
- 8B. BaloghM
- 5B. VecseiM
- 24B. LenzserD
- 29B. TothF
- 26M. SzekszardiD
- 11H. KuzmaD
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Paks
Panathinaikos
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Paks23 July 2026
Paks
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Panathinaikos and Paks in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | UEFA Europa Conference League | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Paks | NB I | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 17 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · NB I
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Paks
- 23 July 2026Paks 1–2 PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Paks
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers60
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Panathinaikos and Paks drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Paks at 55% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Peto 35' for Paks, A. Jagusic 44' for Panathinaikos, M. Gyorfi 57' for Paks, E. Rastoder 85' for Panathinaikos.