30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benfica vs FC St. Gallen UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Benfica 5-0 FC St. Gallen.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% Benfica, 8% draw, 5% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 4-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 87% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benfica99%Draw1%FC St. Gallen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Pavlidisassist: Rafa Silva
11'
21'
J. Stanic
33'
🔁T. Gaalout: J. Ruiz
50'
C. Okoroji
⚽V. Pavlidisassist: J. Kaminski
55'
57'
J. Stanic
57'
J. Stanic
57'
🔁C. Witzigout: A. Hunziker
57'
🔁C. Boukhalfaout: L. Frokaj
⚽V. Pavlidisassist: A. Bah
65'
🔁L. Barreiroout: R. Rios
66'
71'
🔁A. Baldeout: E. Owusu
71'
🔁L. Gortlerout: C. Konietzke
⚽V. Pavlidis (pen)
74'
🔁Rafa Silvaout: D. Lukebakio
75'
🔁J. Kaminskiout: A. Schjelderup
75'
🔁V. Pavlidisout: J. Duran
77'
🔁A. Bahout: A. Dedic
77'
⚽C. Lengletassist: D. Lukebakio
82'

Line-ups

Benfica 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TrubinG
  • 6A. BahD
  • 4A. SilvaD
  • 2C. LengletD
  • 26S. DahlD
  • 18L. BarreiroM
  • 5E. BarrenecheaM
  • 27Rafa SilvaM
  • 10G. SudakovM
  • 13J. KaminskiM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 24S. SoaresG
  • 22J. DuranF
  • 9F. IvanovicF
  • 16ManuM
  • 62J. NetoD
  • 72AnisioF
  • 11D. LukebakioM
  • 17A. DedicD
  • 44T. AraujoD
Coach: Marco Silva
FC St. Gallen 3-5-2
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 26T. GaalD
  • 4J. StanicD
  • 36C. OkorojiM
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 16L. GortlerM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 11C. BoukhalfaM
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 14A. BaldeF
  • 7C. WitzigM
Substitutes
  • 35B. DumrathG
  • 81Y. BujardG
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 47E. OwusuF
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 20L. Frokaj
  • 63C. KonietzkeM
  • 31D. BesioF
  • 74J. RuizD
Coach: Enrico Maassen

Form going into Benfica vs FC St. Gallen

Benfica

  • L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026

FC St. Gallen

  • W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
  • W2-1Benfica23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Benfica and FC St. Gallen in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2BenficaPrimeira Liga6510214+1716
5FC St. GallenSuper League73131214-210

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Primeira Liga · Super League

Head-to-head: Benfica vs FC St. Gallen

  • 23 July 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 BenficaUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Benfica and FC St. Gallen

Benfica

  • V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
  • G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
  • L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists

FC St. Gallen

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.