Benfica vs FC St. Gallen UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 5-0 FC St. Gallen.
Before kick-off the model made it 87% Benfica, 8% draw, 5% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: FC St. Gallen 2–1 Benfica (23 Jul) →
Benfica went through 6–2 on aggregate.
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 87% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. TrubinG
- 6A. BahD
- 4A. SilvaD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 24S. SoaresG
- 22J. DuranF
- 9F. IvanovicF
- 16ManuM
- 62J. NetoD
- 72AnisioF
- 11D. LukebakioM
- 17A. DedicD
- 44T. AraujoD
- 25L. WatkowiakG
- 26T. GaalD
- 4J. StanicD
- 36C. OkorojiM
- 28H. VandermerschM
- 16L. GortlerM
- 10L. DaschnerM
- 11C. BoukhalfaM
- 64M. StevanovicM
- 14A. BaldeF
- 7C. WitzigM
- 35B. DumrathG
- 81Y. BujardG
- 23B. FazlijiM
- 47E. OwusuF
- 9A. HunzikerF
- 20L. Frokaj
- 63C. KonietzkeM
- 31D. BesioF
- 74J. RuizD
Form going into Benfica vs FC St. Gallen
Benfica
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026
FC St. Gallen
All competitions we cover
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
- W2-1Benfica23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Benfica and FC St. Gallen in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | Super League | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Super League
Head-to-head: Benfica vs FC St. Gallen
- 23 July 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Benfica and FC St. Gallen
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis20
FC St. Gallen
GoalsAssists
- A. Balde31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica beat FC St. Gallen 5–0. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 87%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–1. The goals: V. Pavlidis 11' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis 55' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis 65' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis (penalty) 74' for Benfica, C. Lenglet 82' for Benfica. Sent off: J. Stanic (FC St. Gallen) 57'.