UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Benfica vs FC St. Gallen

Lisbon

The model makes it 88% Benfica, 7% draw, 5% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.14, 14.29 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (7%).

Expected goals: Benfica 4.51, FC St. Gallen 1.23.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 92%, under 2.5: 8%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

70%
Both teams to score
92%
Over 2.5 goals
8%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines4-1 7%5-1 6%3-1 6%

Head-to-head: Benfica vs FC St. Gallen

  • 23 July 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.51 expected goals for Benfica against 1.23 for FC St. Gallen. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.59/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.5 for FC St. Gallen.