23 July 2026, 19:15 UTC

Valur Reykjavik vs Zrinjski UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Hlídarendi Reykjavik, Reykjavik
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Final score: Valur Reykjavik 1-0 Zrinjski.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Valur Reykjavik, 38% draw, 43% Zrinjski — fair odds of 5.26, 2.63 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Zrinjski v Valur Reykjavik, 30 Jul →

Valur Reykjavik went through 3–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Zrinjski at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Shkelzen Veseli
32'
56'
🔁A. Nalicout: I. Vidovic
⚽T. Haraldssonassist: J. Jonsson
64'
🔁L. Heimissonout: M. Nakkim
66'
🔁S. Veseliout: B. Antonsson
66'
🔁B. Heimissonout: P. Pedersen
66'
🔁D. Gardarsonout: J. Palsson
66'
69'
🔁M. Vranjkovicout: V. Grbic
69'
🔁A. Ilicout: K. Abramovic
Jakob Franz Pálsson
79'
84'
🔁N. Bilbijaout: T. Juric
84'
🔁M. Cuzeout: M. Sakota
🔁A. Skoglundout: E. Sigurbjornsson
87'

Line-ups

Valur Reykjavik 4-2-3-1
  • 1Frederik SchramG
  • 22Birkir HeimissonM
  • 15Hólmar Örn EyjólfssonD
  • 28Samúel Kári FriðjónssonM
  • 24Myles VeldmanD
  • 17Lúkas Logi HeimissonM
  • 14Albin SkoglundM
  • 8Jónatan Ingi JónssonM
  • 29Shkelzen VeseliM
  • 12Tryggvi Hrafn HaraldssonM
  • 19Dagur Orri GardarsonF
Substitutes
  • 4Markus NakkimD
  • 21Jakob Franz PálssonD
  • 6Bjarni Antonsson DuffieldM
  • 9Patrick PedersenF
  • 26Emil Nonnu SigurbjornssonM
  • 25Stefan Thor AgustssonG
  • 95Tomas Blöndal-PeterssonG
  • 11Ingimar Torbjornsson StoleD
  • 5Kristófer Dagur ArnarssonM
Coach: Hermann Hreidarsson
Zrinjski 4-2-3-1
  • 31Zvonimir ŠubarićG
  • 19Marko VranjkovićD
  • 4Hrvoje BarišićD
  • 37Darick Kobie MorrisD
  • 15Karlo StapićD
  • 20Antonio IvančićM
  • 10Mario ČuićM
  • 17Antonio IlićM
  • 22Adi NalićM
  • 25Mario ĆužeM
  • 99Nemanja BilbijaF
Substitutes
  • 8Ivica VidovićM
  • 21Viktor GrbićD
  • 77Karlo AbramovićM
  • 14Matej ŠakotaM
  • 11Tomi JurićF
  • 1Matej BogdanG
  • 44Antonio ĐakovićG
  • 12Petar MamićD
  • 27Slobodan JakovljevićD
Coach: Simon Rozman

The result against the call

Valur Reykjavik beat Zrinjski 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Zrinjski at 43% and given a win for Valur Reykjavik 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: T. Haraldsson 64' for Valur Reykjavik.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.