30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Valletta FC vs Raków Częstochowa UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Centenary Stadium
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Valletta FC 0-4 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Valletta FC, 20% draw, 66% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 7.14, 5.00 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raków Częstochowa at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Valletta FC0%Draw1%Raków Częstochowa99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽M. Ameyawassist: A. Molnar
31'
⚽T. Pienko
Thaylor
39'
Sava Radić
45+1'
🔁Thaylorout: A. Zammit
46'
Petar Sekulović
53'
54'
⚽A. Molnar
🔁Alex Tanqueout: B. Gomes
58'
🔁R. Prsaout: K. Ewurum
58'
58'
🔁A. Molnarout: O. Kwiatkowski
58'
🔁J. C. Silvaout: J. Jendryka
Petar Sekulović
60'
Petar Sekulović
60'
🔁M. Morelloout: M. Ellul
67'
67'
🔁O. Repkaout: O. Abraham
68'
🔁T. Pienkoout: M. Emreli
68'
🔁M. Ameyawout: E. Otieno
🔁S. Radicout: N. Micallef
78'
78'
⚽P. Makuchassist: O. Kwiatkowski
87'
Fran Tudor

Line-ups

Valletta FC 4-4-2
  • 90Maringa Adilson
  • 55S. Radic
  • 33E. Mbende
  • 4E. BicakcicD
  • 94M. MorelloD
  • 23P. SekulovicM
  • 10B. PaiberM
  • 21R. PrsaM
  • 19D. TavaresF
  • 77ThaylorF
  • 32Alex Tanque
Substitutes
  • 13L. FrendoG
  • 1J. ArchibaldG
  • 3M. EllulD
  • 5S. ChetcutiF
  • 8A. ZammitF
  • 9B. GomesF
  • 11J. AzzopardiM
  • 28M. P. GrechF
  • 31Z. FormosaM
Coach: Thane Micallef
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 2J. NapierajM
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 88A. Molnar
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 21T. PienkoM
Substitutes
  • 29W. ZolneczkoG
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 22O. Abraham
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 26E. OtienoM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek

Form going into Valletta FC vs Raków Częstochowa

Valletta FC

  • L1-3away to Raków Częstochowa23 July 2026

Raków Częstochowa

  • L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
  • W3-1Valletta FC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Valletta FC vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 30 July 2026Valletta FC 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Raków Częstochowa 3–1 Valletta FCUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Valletta FC and Raków Częstochowa

Valletta FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Raków Częstochowa

  • P. Makuch4 goals
  • M. Emreli3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.