23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Paide vs Zira UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Paide 1-0 Zira.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Paide, 49% draw, 24% Zira — fair odds of 3.70, 2.04 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Zira v Paide, 30 Jul →

Paide went through 2–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Luts
36'
60'
🔁Guimaout: I. Ibrahimli
60'
🔁Martins Juniorout: C. Digbeu
N. Baranov
62'
75'
🔁I. Djibrillaout: A. Mutsinzi
75'
🔁Vieirinhaout: G. Papunashvili
77'
A. Seydiyev
🔁M. P. Sohnaout: Daniel Cabral
77'
🔁M. Millerout: H. Ojamaa
79'
🔁A. Badamosiout: H. Anier
79'
🔁S. Lutsout: P. A. Cham
79'
🔁D. Lutsout: K. Piht
86'
87'
🔁E. Aydinout: E. Bogomolskiy
⚽P. A. Chamassist: H. Anier
87'

Line-ups

Paide
  • 99E. Jarju
  • 7E. Tur
  • 27N. Baranov
  • 3Victor Hugo
  • 2M. Lilander
  • 11M. P. Sohna
  • 28O. Hoim
  • 10M. Miller
  • 77D. Luts
  • 30A. Badamosi
  • 19S. Luts
Substitutes
  • 56M. Sapp
  • 4Andrade
  • 6Daniel Cabral
  • 8H. Ojamaa
  • 9H. Anier
  • 14M. Jobarteh
  • 15H. Ojamaa
  • 16A. Surogin
  • 17P. A. Cham
Coach: Tarmo Kink
Zira
  • 13A. Bayramov
  • 32Q. Aliyev
  • 2A. Seydiyev
  • 4Ruan Renato
  • 20I. Djibrilla
  • 21Guima
  • 17Vieirinha
  • 7E. Aydin
  • 93B. Konate
  • 11Martins Junior
  • 9D. Volkovi
Substitutes
  • 72H. Quliyev
  • 99S. Hashimov
  • 5A. Mutsinzi
  • 8I. Ibrahimli
  • 10G. Papunashvili
  • 14E. Alicanov
  • 22A. Guseynov
  • 29C. Digbeu
  • 77E. Bogomolskiy
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov

The result against the call

Paide beat Zira 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 49% and given a win for Paide 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: P. A. Cham 87' for Paide.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.