30 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

FC Sion vs Bate Borisov UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stade de Tourbillon, Sion
Full time4 – 0

Final score: FC Sion 4-0 Bate Borisov.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% FC Sion, 13% draw, 7% Bate Borisov — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Sion at 80% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Sion99%Draw1%Bate Borisov0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽W. Boteli
5'
15'
🔁N. Neskoromnyiout: P. Dubovskiy
⚽R. Nivokaziassist: I. Chouaref
38'
46'
Maksim Sakuta
46'
🔁V. Angbanout: A. Sakhonchik
46'
🔁L. Djordjevicout: E. Puerto
⚽Baltazar
58'
⚽Ali Kabacalman (pen)
62'
🔁A. Kabacalmanout: D. Rrudhani
65'
🔁F. Surdezout: J. Lukembila
65'
🔁I. Chouarefout: T. Berdayes
65'
🔁W. Boteliout: F. Sylla
65'
⚽T. Berdayesassist: D. Rrudhani
68'
Rilind Nivokazi
72'
🔁R. Nivokaziout: A. Llukes
73'
73'
🔁M. Sakutaout: Y. Khramtsevich
82'
🔁I. Mikhnyukout: P. Kolosovskiy
86'
Ales Sakhonchik

Match stats — FC Sion vs Bate Borisov

53%Possession47%
17Shots5
8On target0
10Corners1

Line-ups

FC Sion 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RacioppiG
  • 14N. LavanchyD
  • 5N. SowD
  • 17J. KronigD
  • 20N. HeftiD
  • 88A. KabacalmanM
  • 8BaltazarM
  • 7I. ChouarefM
  • 13W. BoteliM
  • 19F. SurdezM
  • 33R. NivokaziF
Substitutes
  • 12F. RubertoG
  • 40S. CailletG
  • 6Marquinhos CiprianoD
  • 38R. KesslerD
  • 77D. RrudhaniM
  • 9J. LukembilaF
  • 29T. BerdayesF
  • 21L. ChipperfieldM
  • 37F. SyllaM
Coach: Didier Tholot
Bate Borisov 5-3-2
  • 16D. SokolG
  • 17Y. KovalevD
  • 28I. MikhnyukD
  • 33A. RakhmanovD
  • 5M. SakutaD
  • 25N. NeskoromnyiD
  • 52E. KressM
  • 55K. KaplenkoM
  • 7V. AngbanM
  • 19L. DjordjevicF
  • 26V. VaraksaF
Substitutes
  • 35A. SkopetsG
  • 24V. YatskevichF
  • 47A. SakhonchikM
  • 88P. DubovskiyD
  • 18P. KolosovskiyM
  • 42A. ZhurinD
  • 13Y. KhramtsevichM
  • 10E. RusakovM
  • 21M. TitovF
Coach: Vitali Rogozhkin

Form going into FC Sion vs Bate Borisov

FC Sion

  • L2-4away to BSC Young Boys26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Bate Borisov23 July 2026

Bate Borisov

  • D1-1FC Sion23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FC Sion vs Bate Borisov

  • 30 July 2026FC Sion 1–0 Bate BorisovUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Bate Borisov 1–1 FC SionUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: FC Sion and Bate Borisov

FC Sion

  • Winsley Boteli Mokango5 goals3 assists
  • D. Rrudhani3 goals1 assists

Bate Borisov

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.