Waterford vs Derry City Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Waterford, 28% draw, 29% Derry City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waterford at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waterford vs Derry City
Line-ups
- 1S. McMullanG
- 16H. CannD
- 5J. MahonD
- 13K. LongD
- 3Benny CoutoD
- 20J. VoilåsM
- 8E. McLaughlinM
- 7N. MaweneM
- 10C. NoonanM
- 18T. LonerganF
- 9P. AmondF
- 27D. McMenamyM
- 56A. BrennanD
- 6J. AshtonD
- 32G. AmeduD
- 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
- 19S. GlenfieldM
- 15L. HeeneyM
- 17J. FariaM
- 12B. McKenzieD
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 23C. DummiganD
- 4J. StottD
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 12D. BurnsM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 19B. FlemingM
- 27L. BoyceF
- 7M. DuffyF
- 15J. ClarkeF
- 22C. BarrD
- 14E. ChapmanM
- 25Christy GroganD
- 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
- 1B. MaherG
- 21Kévin SantosM
- 29T. SmithF
- 28J. OlayinkaM
- 11G. WhyteM
Form going into Waterford vs Derry City
Waterford
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
Derry City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Shelbourne11 September 2026
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026
What these results say
- Derry City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Derry City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Derry City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Waterford | 35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 40 |
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waterford vs Derry City
- 3 July 2026Derry City 2–4 WaterfordPremier Division
- 15 May 2026Waterford 2–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Derry City 4–2 WaterfordPremier Division
- 17 October 2025Waterford 1–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 4 July 2025Derry City 7–2 WaterfordPremier Division
Leading scorers: Waterford and Derry City
Waterford
GoalsAssists
- T. Lonergan156
- P. Amond131
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Waterford and Derry City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Waterford at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Adam O'Reilly 9' for Derry City, Evan McLaughlin 45' for Waterford, Michael Duffy 51' for Derry City, Padraig Amond 57' for Waterford.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.