Dundalk
vs
St Patrick's Athletic
Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athletic.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Dundalk, 27% draw, 43% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dundalk 1.31, St Patrick's Athletic 1.84.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
- L1-2Galway United21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers7 August 2026
St Patrick's Athletic
- W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026
- L0-2Waterford28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Drogheda United21 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shelbourne9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundalk | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 25 | +26 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Dundalk and St Patrick's Athletic
Dundalk
- D. Horgan10 goals10 assists
- G. Arubi7 goals3 assists
St Patrick's Athletic
- R. Edmondson10 goals1 assists
- A. Keena9 goals4 assists
- K. Leavy6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Dundalk carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.38 for St Patrick's Athletic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Dundalk and 1.84 for St Patrick's Athletic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundalk rate 0.51 in attack and 2.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Patrick's Athletic rate 0.62 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dundalk a 0% chance of the title and St Patrick's Athletic 25.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Patrick's Athletic the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dundalk against 1.84 for St Patrick's Athletic. Dundalk's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.58 for St Patrick's Athletic.