14 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic Premier Division prediction & result

Oriel Park, Dundalk
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athletic.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Dundalk, 27% draw, 39% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dundalk0%Draw1%St Patrick's Athletic99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Aidan Keenaassist: Anthony Olusanya
29'
Anthony Olusanya
37'
⚽Aidan Keena
🔁Luke Mulliganout: John Ross Wilson
45'
🔁Harry Groomeout: shane tracey
45'
🔁Cian dillonout: leonardo gaxha
55'
58'
🔁Barry Baggleyout: Darragh Nugent
58'
🔁Zachary Elbouzediout: James Brown
leonardo gaxha
69'
🔁Aodh Dervinout: Harvey Warren
69'
69'
🔁Aidan Keenaout: Ryan Edmondson
75'
⚽Ryan Sheridanassist: Anthony Olusanya
🔁Trevor Clarkeout: Declan McDaid
76'
79'
🔁Ryan Sheridanout: Christopher Forrester
79'
🔁Anthony Olusanyaout: Romal Palmer
82'
⚽Ryan Edmondson
Harvey Warren
83'

Match stats — Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic

52%Possession48%
7Shots16
0On target8
3Corners3

Line-ups

Dundalk 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MinogueG
  • 12L. MulliganD
  • 44T. GrivostiD
  • 16E. VasseninD
  • 3B. BurnsD
  • 6A. DervinM
  • 11R. TeahanM
  • 15T. ClarkeM
  • 8H. GroomeM
  • 7D. HorganM
  • 9C. DillonF
Substitutes
  • 13P. CherrieG
  • 10Leonardo GaxhaF
  • 23A. M. KeoghM
  • 27D. McDaidM
  • 35S. SafaeiG
  • 19Sean SpaightD
  • 17S. TraceyM
  • 5H. WarrenD
  • 31J. WilsonD
Coach: C. Kilduff
St Patrick's Athletic 3-1-4-2
  • 94J. AnangG
  • 4J. RedmondD
  • 2S. HoareD
  • 24L. TurnerD
  • 6J. LennonM
  • 7Z. ElbouzediM
  • 48R. SheridanM
  • 19B. BaggleyM
  • 3A. BreslinM
  • 21A. OlusanyaF
  • 9A. KeenaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. RogersG
  • 17R. PalmerM
  • 16D. NugentM
  • 33S. McHaleD
  • 11J. McClellandF
  • 8C. ForresterM
  • 27R. EdmondsonF
  • 23J. BrownD
  • 35S. RooneyF
Coach: S. Kenny

Form going into Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic

Dundalk

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026

St Patrick's Athletic

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Dundalk351012135258-642
3St Patrick's Athletic3517995328+2560

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic

  • 24 July 2026St Patrick's Athletic 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
  • 6 April 2026Dundalk 2–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 27 February 2026St Patrick's Athletic 4–0 DundalkPremier Division
  • 5 September 2024Dundalk 1–2 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 3 June 2024St Patrick's Athletic 2–3 DundalkPremier Division

Leading scorers: Dundalk and St Patrick's Athletic

Dundalk

GoalsAssists

  • D. Horgan1110
  • G. Arubi73

St Patrick's Athletic

GoalsAssists

  • A. Keena104
  • R. Edmondson101
  • K. Leavy63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Patrick's Athletic won 4–0 at Dundalk. The model had made a win for St Patrick's Athletic its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aidan Keena 21' for St Patrick's Athletic, Aidan Keena 37' for St Patrick's Athletic, Ryan Sheridan 75' for St Patrick's Athletic, Ryan Edmondson 82' for St Patrick's Athletic.

How the call on Dundalk v St Patrick's Athletic has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is St Patrick's Athletic's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Dundalk win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. St Patrick's Athletic win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.