Torpedo Kutaisi
vs
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Torpedo Kutaisi 3-2 Samgurali.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Torpedo Kutaisi, 29% draw, 33% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.47, Samgurali 1.28.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Dila22 August 2026
Samgurali
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
- W4-3away to Spaeri22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
- K. Andrić8 goals2 assists
- G. Arabidze5 goals8 assists
- Felipe Pires3 goals
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torpedo Kutaisi carry a model rating of 5.95 against 6.04 for Samgurali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.28 for Samgurali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.43 in attack and 2.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Samgurali rate 0.41 and 2.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 0.5% chance of the title and Samgurali 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi against 1.28 for Samgurali. Torpedo Kutaisi's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.1 for Samgurali.