Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Torpedo Kutaisi 3-2 Samgurali.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Torpedo Kutaisi, 29% draw, 29% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Line-ups
- 1O. GoshadzeG
- 15L. KupravaD
- 22D. BukiaD
- 4M. ŠimićD
- 33M. StamatovD
- 11G. ArabidzeM
- 8M. ItrakM
- 17N. LominadzeM
- 14Felipe PiresF
- 35D. DeisadzeM
- 9K. AndrićF
- 25G. GergedavaM
- 13G. KatkovD
- 28Nika KhatoyanF
- 31F. KljajićG
- 24L. LatsabidzeD
- 5T. NadaraiaD
- 39V. PinsonF
- 20D. SkorupM
- 29M. ChitaishviliM
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 15Gean CarlosF
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
- 22G. GogiaD
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 7N. KhorkheliF
- 39RyanD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
Samgurali
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 37 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali
- 13 June 2026Samgurali 2–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 6–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 24 January 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 2–1 SamguraliFriendlies Clubs
- 22 November 2025Samgurali 2–4 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Torpedo Kutaisi 6–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Samgurali
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Torpedo Kutaisi beat Samgurali 3–2. The model had made a win for Torpedo Kutaisi its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Irakli Siradze 4' for Samgurali, Giorgi Arabidze 22' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Komnen Andrić 26' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Nodar Lominadze 67' for Torpedo Kutaisi, Omar patarkatsishvili 90+5' for Samgurali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.