Shelbourne
vs
Drogheda United
Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 1-2 Drogheda United.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Shelbourne, 30% draw, 29% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.44, Drogheda United 1.06.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Shelbourne
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United28 August 2026
- L1-2St Patrick's Athletic9 August 2026
Drogheda United
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
- L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
- L0-2St Patrick's Athletic21 August 2026
- D0-0away to Galway United7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shelbourne | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 36 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Drogheda United
Shelbourne
- H. Wood7 goals5 assists
- J. Martin6 goals2 assists
- D. Kelly6 goals
Drogheda United
- M. Doyle8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shelbourne carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.15 for Drogheda United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Shelbourne and 1.06 for Drogheda United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shelbourne rate 0.45 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Drogheda United rate 0.49 and 1.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shelbourne the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shelbourne against 1.06 for Drogheda United. Shelbourne's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.97 for Drogheda United.