Shelbourne vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 1-2 Drogheda United.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Shelbourne, 29% draw, 26% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shelbourne at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Line-ups
- 19E. BeachG
- 25M. MbengD
- 16O. CaseyD
- 4K. LedwidgeD
- 18James Barry NorrisD
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 23K. McInroyM
- 22S. MooreM
- 27E. CaffreyM
- 17D. KellyM
- 9S. BoydF
- 14A. CooteM
- 2S. GannonD
- 36W. JarvisM
- 6J. LunneyM
- 11M. OdubekoF
- 44Daniel RingF
- 55James RocheD
- 31C. WalshG
- 20R. FreitasF
- 1L. DennisonG
- 4A. QuinnD
- 22C. KeeleyD
- 5Leo BurneyD
- 2E. AgbajeM
- 15A. BatesM
- 10B. KavanaghM
- 8Ethan O'BrienM
- 3C. KaneM
- 24W. DavisF
- 11T. OluwaF
- 14M. DoyleF
- 17S. FarrellM
- 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
- 31K. CruiseD
- 19R. BrennanM
- 29J. BrennanD
- 32D. MareD
- 25R. MarkeyF
- 33S. McGrathM
Form going into Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
Shelbourne
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D2-2Ajax13 August 2026
- L1-3away to Ajax6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kalju Nomme30 July 2026
Drogheda United
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
What these results say
- Shelbourne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shelbourne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 49 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United
- 19 June 2026Drogheda United 2–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 24 April 2026Shelbourne 3–4 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 27 February 2026Drogheda United 1–2 ShelbournePremier Division
- 22 September 2025Drogheda United 2–1 ShelbournePremier Division
- 19 May 2025Shelbourne 0–0 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Drogheda United
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- D. Kelly84
- J. Martin82
Drogheda United
GoalsAssists
- M. Doyle90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Drogheda United won 2–1 at Shelbourne. The model had leaned towards a win for Shelbourne at 45% and given a win for Drogheda United 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Daniel Kelly 22' for Shelbourne, Warren Davis 40' for Drogheda United, Leo Burney 57' for Drogheda United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Shelbourne's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Drogheda United's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.