14 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sligo Rovers vs Galway United Premier Division prediction & result

Showgrounds, Sligo
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Sligo Rovers 1-3 Galway United.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sligo Rovers, 30% draw, 33% Galway United — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sligo Rovers at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sligo Rovers0%Draw1%Galway United99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cian Kavanaghassist: James McManus
8'
18'
⚽Jimmy Keohane (pen)
Carl McHugh
33'
39'
⚽Stephen Walshassist: Kristopher Twardek
50'
🔁Connor Barrattout: Frantz Pierrot
50'
🔁Stephen Walshout: francely lomboto
🔁Ruben Gillespieout: Kaiyne Woolery
54'
🔁A. Gabbidonout: Luke Pearce
70'
76'
🔁Kristopher Twardekout: Dylan Connolly
Luke Pearce
80'
84'
Jimmy Keohane
86'
⚽Jimmy Keohane (pen)
Gareth McElroy
87'
90+2'
🔁David Hurleyout: Junior Thiam

Match stats — Sligo Rovers vs Galway United

63%Possession37%
20Shots13
4On target5
8Corners4

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 16C. McHughD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 50Ruben GillespieM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 11C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 23K. McDonaghM
  • 9L. PearceF
  • 29S. SargeantG
  • 41K. WooleryF
  • 77Kevin ZefiF
  • 61Conor CannonD
  • 24J. O'DonnellF
  • 49Jamie O'MalleyD
Coach: D. Purse
Galway United 3-1-4-2
  • 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
  • 15O. WilliamsD
  • 2A. O'ConnorD
  • 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
  • 20L. DevittM
  • 3Connor BarrattM
  • 10D. HurleyM
  • 8A. BolgerM
  • 4J. KeohaneM
  • 11K. TwardekF
  • 7S. WalshF
Substitutes
  • 23F. PierrotF
  • 24E. McCarthyM
  • 9F. LombotoF
  • 17Junior ThiamM
  • 30A. KazeemD
  • 54C. WhittakerM
  • 28J. MorahanD
  • 21D. ConnollyF
  • 32Vincent AngeliniG
Coach: John Caulfield

Form going into Sligo Rovers vs Galway United

Sligo Rovers

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Drogheda United11 September 2026

Galway United

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Bohemians11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sligo Rovers3559212664-3824
6Galway United351012134651-542

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs Galway United

  • 11 July 2026Galway United 3–2 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 16 May 2026Sligo Rovers 1–4 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 27 February 2026Galway United 1–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 24 January 2026Sligo Rovers 6–0 Galway UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 September 2025Galway United 0–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division

Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and Galway United

Sligo Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh62

Galway United

GoalsAssists

  • K. Twardek86
  • J. Keohane73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galway United won 3–1 at Sligo Rovers. The model had leaned towards a win for Sligo Rovers at 37% and given a win for Galway United 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cian Kavanagh 8' for Sligo Rovers, Jimmy Keohane (penalty) 18' for Galway United, Stephen Walsh 39' for Galway United, Jimmy Keohane (penalty) 86' for Galway United.

How the call on Sligo Rovers v Galway United has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Sligo Rovers's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sligo Rovers win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Galway United win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.