18 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Bohemians vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result

Dalymount Park, Dublin
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bohemians 2-1 Drogheda United.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bohemians, 28% draw, 25% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bohemians at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bohemians7%Draw91%Drogheda United2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Connor Parsonsassist: Colm Whelan
42'
43'
🔁Luke Dennisonout: Fynn Talley
52'
🔁Alfie Batesout: Shane Farrell
🔁Harry Patrick Vaughanout: Z. Myers
66'
🔁Colm Whelanout: James Taylor
66'
67'
🔁Conor Kaneout: Kieran Cruise
67'
🔁Brandon Kavanaghout: Mark Doyle
67'
🔁Thomas Oluwaout: Ryan Markey
A. Reynolds
71'
73'
⚽Andrew Quinnassist: Edwin Agbaje
Ross Tierney
78'
🔁Senan Mullenout: Paddy Madden
79'
85'
Kevin Doherty
⚽Dawson Devoy
90'
🔁Ross Tierneyout: Niall Morahan
90+2'
🔁Connor Parsonsout: Adam McDonnell
90+2'

Match stats — Bohemians vs Drogheda United

55%Possession45%
20Shots11
6On target3
11Corners3

Line-ups

Bohemians 4-2-3-1
  • 25P. WaltersG
  • 16D. PowerD
  • 12P. HickeyD
  • 24C. ByrneD
  • 15S. MullenD
  • 10D. DevoyM
  • 6J. FloresM
  • 26R. TierneyM
  • 8H. VaughanM
  • 7C. ParsonsM
  • 9C. WhelanF
Substitutes
  • 3R. BurkeD
  • 1K. ChorążkaG
  • 5S. DialloM
  • 18D. James-TaylorF
  • 41P. MaddenF
  • 17A. McDonnellM
  • 4N. MorahanM
  • 23Zane MyersD
  • 32M. StrodsM
Coach: A. Reynolds
Drogheda United 3-5-2
  • 1L. DennisonG
  • 4A. QuinnD
  • 22C. KeeleyD
  • 5Leo BurneyD
  • 2E. AgbajeM
  • 10B. KavanaghM
  • 15A. BatesM
  • 8Ethan O'BrienM
  • 3C. KaneM
  • 24W. DavisF
  • 11T. OluwaF
Substitutes
  • 33S. McGrathM
  • 25R. MarkeyF
  • 32D. MareD
  • 17S. FarrellM
  • 14M. DoyleF
  • 34Calum DonnellyD
  • 31K. CruiseD
  • 29J. BrennanD
  • 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
Coach: K. Doherty

Form going into Bohemians vs Drogheda United

Bohemians

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Midtjylland13 August 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland6 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Ballkani30 July 2026

Drogheda United

Premier Division

  • W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bohemians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bohemians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bohemians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bohemians3518896042+1862
9Drogheda United35910164257-1537

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bohemians vs Drogheda United

  • 3 July 2026Drogheda United 0–2 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 15 May 2026Bohemians 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 3 April 2026Drogheda United 0–0 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 9 January 2026Drogheda United 1–1 BohemiansFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 November 2025Drogheda United 1–4 BohemiansPremier Division
  • 1 August 2025Bohemians 0–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division

Leading scorers: Bohemians and Drogheda United

Bohemians

GoalsAssists

  • C. Whelan136
  • R. Tierney113

Drogheda United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Doyle90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bohemians beat Drogheda United 2–1. The model had made a win for Bohemians its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Connor Parsons 42' for Bohemians, Andrew Quinn 73' for Drogheda United, Dawson Devoy 90' for Bohemians. Sent off: Kevin Doherty (Drogheda United) 85'.

How the call on Bohemians v Drogheda United has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Bohemians's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Bohemians win47%▼ −6
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Drogheda United win25%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.