Bohemians
vs
Drogheda United
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Bohemians 1–0 Drogheda United
The model makes it 47% Bohemians, 28% draw, 25% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1.76, Drogheda United 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bohemians vs Drogheda United
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Bohemians wins, grey are draws, red are Drogheda United wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bohemians vs Drogheda United
Bohemians
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
- W5-3Derry City21 August 2026
- L1-3away to Waterford9 August 2026
- D1-1Galway United2 August 2026
Drogheda United
- W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
- L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
- L0-2St Patrick's Athletic21 August 2026
- D0-0away to Galway United7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bohemians | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 | 36 | +17 | 53 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Bohemians and Drogheda United
Bohemians
- C. Whelan12 goals5 assists
- R. Tierney9 goals3 assists
Drogheda United
- M. Doyle8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bohemians carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.15 for Drogheda United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Drogheda United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians rate 0.55 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Drogheda United rate 0.49 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bohemians a 13.5% chance of the title and Drogheda United 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bohemians against 0.97 for Drogheda United. Bohemians's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.97 for Drogheda United.