14 September 2026, 22:00 UTC

Banfield vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Florencio Sola, Buenos Aires
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Banfield 1-1 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Banfield, 28% draw, 38% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Barracas Central at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Banfield4%Draw91%Barracas Central5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Gomezassist: S. Lopez
45'
46'
🔁D. Martinezout: R. Barrios
59'
🔁K. Jappertout: E. Taborda
59'
🔁E. Pereyraout: R. Insua
62'
⚽I. Tapia (pen)
69'
•Norberto Briasco
🔁S. Lopezout: F. Medina
73'
76'
🔁T. Porraout: N. Capraro
Tomas Adoryan
78'
🔁T. Adoryanout: F. Alvarez
79'
🔁L. Gomezout: L. Pinero
79'
85'
🔁N. Briascoout: J. Candia
🔁A. Machadoout: M. Hernandez
87'
Favio Álvarez
88'

Match stats — Banfield vs Barracas Central

37%Possession63%
8Shots10
4On target3
1Corners6
0.53xG1.28

Goals against chances

Banfield1 from 0.53 xGabout what the chances were worth
Barracas Central1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Banfield 3-5-2
  • 50D. RodriguezG
  • 13B. OviedoD
  • 2S. DanieleD
  • 6N. MerianoD
  • 24S. LopezM
  • 10L. GomezM
  • 5S. EsquivelM
  • 20T. AdoryanM
  • 27I. AbrahamM
  • 22A. MachadoF
  • 9A. BalboaF
Substitutes
  • 25G. SantilliG
  • 3N. PazD
  • 19L. CanoD
  • 37R. MalancaD
  • 21L. VillegasM
  • 35N. PaisM
  • 11F. AlvarezM
  • 30F. AnselmoF
  • 40D. ZalazarF
Coach: Pedro Troglio
Barracas Central 5-3-2
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 4D. MartinezD
  • 14K. JappertD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 17E. PereyraD
  • 8T. PorraM
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 11N. BriascoF
  • 33G. MaroniF
Substitutes
  • 43L. Fernandez
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 28R. BogarinM
  • 35E. RolonM
  • 24E. TabordaF
  • 20J. CandiaF
  • 77F. BrueraF
Coach: Damian Ayude

Form going into Banfield vs Barracas Central

Banfield

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
  • L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Racing Club14 August 2026
  • L0-2Belgrano Cordoba10 August 2026

Barracas Central

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
  • L1-2Platense23 August 2026
  • L0-1Rosario Central16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Gimnasia La Plata9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Banfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Banfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Banfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Barracas Central did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Barracas Central failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Barracas Central had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Banfield143561520-514
6Barracas Central146441311+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Banfield vs Barracas Central

  • 2 May 2026Barracas Central 1–2 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 July 2025Banfield 1–3 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 February 2025Barracas Central 1–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 September 2024Barracas Central 0–1 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2024Banfield 0–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Banfield vs Barracas Central record →

The result against the call

Banfield and Barracas Central drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Barracas Central at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Gomez 45' for Banfield, I. Tapia (penalty) 62' for Barracas Central. On expected goals it finished 0.53–1.28.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.