Deportivo Riestra
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Riestra 0-3 Lanus.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Deportivo Riestra, 30% draw, 38% Lanus — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Riestra 1.14, Lanus 1.37.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Newell's Old Boys15 August 2026
Lanus
- W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus
- 2 May 2026Lanus 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 July 2025Deportivo Riestra 1–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 January 2025Lanus 0–2 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2024Deportivo Riestra 3–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Deportivo Riestra carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.89 for Lanus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Deportivo Riestra and 1.37 for Lanus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Riestra rate 0.71 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lanus rate 1.07 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Riestra a 0% chance of the title and Lanus 3.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra against 1.37 for Lanus. Deportivo Riestra's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.99 for Lanus.