14 September 2026, 22:00 UTC

Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Guillermo Laza, Buenos Aires
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Deportivo Riestra 0-3 Lanus.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Deportivo Riestra, 31% draw, 32% Lanus — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Deportivo Riestra at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Riestra0%Draw1%Lanus99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽A. Wlkassist: E. Salvio
45+2'
Felipe Peña Biafore
🔁C. Quintanaout: R. Gallo
46'
🔁J. Goitiaout: N. Watson
46'
🔁A. Alonsoout: T. Gonzalez
46'
🔁P. Ramirezout: A. Almada
64'
69'
⚽A. Wlkassist: E. Salvio
🔁N. Benegasout: A. Graneros
71'
74'
⚽F. Pena Biaforeassist: M. Sepulveda
Mariano Bracamonte
77'
78'
🔁L. Besozziout: F. N. Watson
78'
🔁A. Wlkout: Y. Valois
Alexander Díaz
82'
87'
🔁C. Izquierdozout: R. De Jesus
87'
🔁F. Pena Biaforeout: A. Medina
88'
🔁M. Sepulvedaout: G. Lobos

Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus

37%Possession63%
23Shots11
6On target6
4Corners4
1.83xG1.67

Goals against chances

Deportivo Riestra0 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth
Lanus3 from 1.67 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2
  • 1I. ArceG
  • 36M. BracamonteD
  • 15N. SansotreD
  • 22C. PazD
  • 2C. QuintanaD
  • 5P. RamirezD
  • 27J. GoitiaM
  • 8M. CelizM
  • 7A. AlonsoM
  • 11A. DiazF
  • 9N. BenegasF
Substitutes
  • 23M. ArzamendiaG
  • 4Murillo YaisonD
  • 13R. GalloD
  • 16N. WatsonM
  • 14P. MonjeM
  • 20T. LauroM
  • 18B. PerezM
  • 29A. GranerosF
  • 35A. StringaF
Coach: Gustavo Benitez
Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 4G. PerezD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 5F. Pena BiaforeM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 16M. SepulvedaM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 39T. LaplaceM
  • 35R. De JesusD
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 27F. SanchezD
  • 40T. LopezD
  • 8F. N. WatsonM
  • 17A. MedinaM
Coach: Mauricio Pellegrino

Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus

Deportivo Riestra

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
  • D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Newell's Old Boys15 August 2026
  • W2-0Estudiantes La Plata8 August 2026

Lanus

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
  • D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
  • L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Deportivo Riestra had two goals or fewer.
  • Deportivo Riestra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Deportivo Riestra142661014-412
5Lanus147341710+724

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus

  • 2 May 2026Lanus 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 July 2025Deportivo Riestra 1–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 January 2025Lanus 0–2 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 August 2024Deportivo Riestra 3–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Deportivo Riestra vs Lanus record →

The result against the call

Lanus won 3–0 at Deportivo Riestra. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Riestra at 37% and given a win for Lanus 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Wlk 11' for Lanus, A. Wlk 69' for Lanus, F. Pena Biafore 74' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 1.83–1.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.