Meshakhte
vs
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Meshakhte 0-1 Rustavi.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Meshakhte, 34% draw, 33% Rustavi — fair odds of 3.03, 2.94 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Meshakhte 0.87, Rustavi 0.89.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Meshakhte vs Rustavi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 34% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Meshakhte vs Rustavi
Meshakhte
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
- D2-2Spaeri5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi31 August 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi21 August 2026
Rustavi
- D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
- W3-0Gagra22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Meshakhte | 26 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 1 | Rustavi | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Meshakhte carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.3 for Rustavi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Meshakhte and 0.89 for Rustavi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Meshakhte rate 0.36 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rustavi rate 0.48 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Meshakhte a 0% chance of the title and Rustavi 46.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Meshakhte against 0.89 for Rustavi. Meshakhte's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.48 for Rustavi.