Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Vitoria, 28% draw, 31% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitoria at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Line-ups
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 95CaíqueM
- 33ErickM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 2E. BrítezD
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 23FabrícioF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 23FágnerD
- 43João MarceloD
- 34JonathanD
- 27G. RojasD
- 8GersonM
- 5Zé LucasM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 20Wesley GassovaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 12WilliamD
- 94WandersonF
- 6M. ViñaD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 97L. RodríguezF
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
Form going into Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
- W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 38 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
- 1 April 2026Cruzeiro 3–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 1 November 2025Cruzeiro 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 12 June 2025Vitoria 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 19 August 2024Vitoria 2–2 CruzeiroSerie A
- 28 April 2024Cruzeiro 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Cruzeiro
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge122
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 3–1 at Vitoria. The model had leaned towards a win for Vitoria at 41% and given a win for Cruzeiro 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira 39' for Vitoria, Keny arroyo 46' for Cruzeiro, Lucas Villalba 66' for Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira 90+7' for Cruzeiro.
How the call on Vitoria v Cruzeiro has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Vitoria's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Vitoria win41%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cruzeiro win31%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Vitoria's most recent league matches and Cruzeiro's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.