Instituto Cordoba
vs
Talleres Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Talleres Cordoba
The model makes it 51% Instituto Cordoba, 25% draw, 24% Talleres Cordoba — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 2.35, Talleres Cordoba 1.23.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Instituto Cordoba vs Talleres Cordoba
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Instituto Cordoba wins, grey are draws, red are Talleres Cordoba wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Instituto Cordoba at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Talleres Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto15 September 2026
- L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
Talleres Cordoba
- W2-1Union Santa Fe12 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo5 September 2026
- D0-0Central Cordoba de Santiago30 August 2026
- D2-2Rosario Central25 August 2026
- L1-3away to Gimnasia Mendoza18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Talleres Cordoba
- 12 March 2026Talleres Cordoba 2–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 November 2025Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 May 2025Talleres Cordoba 1–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Talleres Cordoba 1–1 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 February 2024Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Talleres CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 17 September 2023Talleres Cordoba 0–0 Instituto CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
The two sides
Instituto Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.53 for Talleres Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 1.23 for Talleres Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Instituto Cordoba rate 0.89 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Talleres Cordoba rate 0.83 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Instituto Cordoba a 33.1% chance of the title and Talleres Cordoba 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 1.23 for Talleres Cordoba. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.62 for Talleres Cordoba.