Belgrano Cordoba
vs
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Belgrano Cordoba 1–0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
The model makes it 43% Belgrano Cordoba, 30% draw, 27% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Belgrano Cordoba 1.52, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Belgrano Cordoba wins, grey are draws, red are Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belgrano Cordoba at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Belgrano Cordoba
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin13 September 2026
- D1-1Huracan4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman30 August 2026
- L1-2Defensa Y Justicia23 August 2026
- W2-0Independiente Rivadavia15 August 2026
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba15 September 2026
- L0-2Sarmiento Junin4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huracan29 August 2026
- D0-0San Lorenzo21 August 2026
- L0-1Atletico Tucuman17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Belgrano Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 12 March 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 June 2022Belgrano Cordoba 0–0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoPrimera Nacional
- 19 October 2021Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoPrimera Nacional
- 22 June 2021Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Belgrano CordobaPrimera Nacional
- 19 October 2019Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–1 Belgrano CordobaPrimera Nacional
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Belgrano Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.55 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.94 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Belgrano Cordoba rate 0.79 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.64 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belgrano Cordoba the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Belgrano Cordoba against 0.94 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Belgrano Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.18 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.