Gremio vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Gremio, 29% draw, 42% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Palmeiras
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 82WallaceD
- 18João PedroM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 54Pedro GabrielM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 77Jovane CabralF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 43Luis EduardoD
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 11J. AriasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 42J. LópezM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 39HeittorF
- 12KhellvenD
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 32E. MartínezM
- 18MaurícioM
Form going into Gremio vs Palmeiras
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 37 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Palmeiras
- 3 April 2026Palmeiras 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 26 November 2025Gremio 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 July 2025Palmeiras 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 9 November 2024Palmeiras 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 4 July 2024Gremio 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Palmeiras
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio and Palmeiras drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Palmeiras at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Gremio v Palmeiras has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Gremio's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Gremio win29%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +3
- Palmeiras win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.