Sao Paulo
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Internacional
The model makes it 39% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 31% Internacional — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.45, Internacional 1.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Internacional
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sao Paulo wins, grey are draws, red are Internacional wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Internacional
Sao Paulo
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
- D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
Internacional
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
- D1-1Remo17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Internacional
- 1 April 2026Internacional 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 3 December 2025Sao Paulo 3–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 3 August 2025Internacional 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 22 September 2024Sao Paulo 1–3 InternacionalSerie A
- 13 June 2024Internacional 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 14 September 2023Internacional 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Internacional
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.71 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.15 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.78 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 0.87 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.15 for Internacional. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.14 for Internacional.