20 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sao Paulo 1-0 Internacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Sao Paulo, 29% draw, 32% Internacional — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sao Paulo at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo96%Draw4%Internacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jonathan Calleri (pen)
15'
Jonathan Calleri
19'
20'
Matheus Bahia
34'
Bruno Henrique
🔁Domingos Duarteout: Jose Monteiro
39'
45'
🔁Bruno Henriqueout: Thiago Maia
45'
🔁Matheus Bahiaout: Allex Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
🔁Lucianoout: Danielzinho
64'
70'
🔁Vitinhoout: Brian Aguirre
🔁Jonathan Calleriout: Aldemir Ferreira
73'
🔁Pedro Limaout: Lucas Ramon
73'
🔁Artur Victor Guimarãesout: Andre Silva
73'
79'
🔁Paulo Lucas Santos de Paulaout: Antonio Sanabria
88'
🔁Johan Carboneroout: Niclas Eliasson
90+3'
Gabriel Mercado

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Internacional

44%Possession56%
6Shots13
1On target1
3Corners3

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 22Domingos DuarteD
  • 5R. ArboledaD
  • 2R. TolóiD
  • 32Pedro LimaM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 48D. FerreiraM
  • 12IagoM
  • 10LucianoM
  • 37ArturM
  • 9J. CalleriF
Substitutes
  • 17André SilvaF
  • 18WendellD
  • 27Victor SáF
  • 43G. SantanaF
  • 35SabinoD
  • 49Ryan FranciscoF
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 80CaulyM
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Internacional 3-4-2-1
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 15Bruno GomesD
  • 3G. MaripánD
  • 25G. MercadoD
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 27PaulinhoM
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 6Matheus BahiaM
  • 7J. CarboneroM
  • 26A. BernabéiM
  • 10Alan PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 35B. AguirreD
  • 9AlerrandroF
  • 31AllexM
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 44Victor JoaoF
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 16RonaldoM
  • 19A. SanabriaF
Coach: P. Pezzolano

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Internacional

Sao Paulo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
  • W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
  • W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
  • D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026

Internacional

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
  • L2-3Santos6 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
  • D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
  • D1-1Remo17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sao Paulo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
  • Internacional failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Internacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo33127143939043
17Internacional33811143742-535

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Internacional

  • 1 April 2026Internacional 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 3 December 2025Sao Paulo 3–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 3 August 2025Internacional 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 22 September 2024Sao Paulo 1–3 InternacionalSerie A
  • 13 June 2024Internacional 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A

The full Sao Paulo vs Internacional record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Internacional

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sao Paulo beat Internacional 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sao Paulo at 39%. The goal: Jonathan Calleri (penalty) 15' for Sao Paulo.

How the call on Sao Paulo v Internacional has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Sao Paulo's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Sao Paulo win39%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Internacional win32%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.