Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Piast Gliwice, 30% draw, 30% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Line-ups
- 75D. GrilG
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 5Juande RivasD
- 4J. CzerwińskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90Ivan LimaM
- 27J. ŁabojkoM
- 17Q. BoisgardM
- 80Hugo VallejoM
- 19S. Ntamack NdimbaF
- 11Leandro SancaF
- 98J. LokiloF
- 47J. GrelichG
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 91Maciej KucharskiF
- 31O. LeśniakM
- 18O. MaziarzM
- 12Marcel Mendes-DudzińskiG
- 77S. MuchaM
- 7Jorge FélixF
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 16P. DziczekM
- 3K. AcostaM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuF
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 15Hussein AliD
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 41A. SzalaiD
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
- 13 April 2026Piast Gliwice 0–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 3 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2025Piast Gliwice 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Piast GliwiceCup
- 6 October 2024Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo50
- Leandro Sanca41
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin won 2–1 at Piast Gliwice. The model had leaned towards a win for Piast Gliwice at 40% and given a win for Pogon Szczecin 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jordi Sánchez 26' for Pogon Szczecin, Samuel Ntamack Ndimba 31' for Piast Gliwice, Darko Churlinov 57' for Pogon Szczecin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.