Piast Gliwice
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Piast Gliwice 1–0 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 41% Piast Gliwice, 30% draw, 29% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.43, Pogon Szczecin 1.04.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Piast Gliwice wins, grey are draws, red are Pogon Szczecin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa22 August 2026
- L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
- 13 April 2026Piast Gliwice 0–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 3 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2025Piast Gliwice 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Piast GliwiceCup
- 6 October 2024Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 26 June 2024Piast Gliwice 1–0 Pogon SzczecinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals
Pogon Szczecin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.66 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.04 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.79 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.76 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Piast Gliwice a 2.1% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 2.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.04 for Pogon Szczecin. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.11 for Pogon Szczecin.