20 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Corinthians vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result

Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Corinthians 1-3 Fluminense.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Corinthians, 29% draw, 30% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Corinthians at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Corinthians0%Draw5%Fluminense95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Memphis Depay
20'
24'
⚽Hulkassist: Luciano Acosta
24'
•Hulk
Matheuzinho
35'
44'
Samuel Xavier Brito
45+6'
Matheus Martinelli Lima
🔁Iago Machadoout: Gui Negão
45'
⚽Gustavo Henrique
56'
59'
🔁Samuel Xavier Britoout: Julio César Lima Fidelis
59'
🔁Luciano Acostaout: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
André
61'
62'
Agustín Canobbio
64'
Julio César Lima Fidelis
71'
Gustavo Nonato Santana
76'
⚽Hulkassist: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
76'
🔁Agustín Canobbioout: Riquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida
76'
🔁Gustavo Nonato Santanaout: Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
🔁Andréout: Jesse Lingard
80'
🔁Memphis Depayout: Pedro Raul
81'
87'
🔁Hulkout: Rodrigo Castillo
🔁Breno Bidonout: Matheus Pereira
88'
90+3'
⚽Kevin Sernaassist: Matheus Martinelli Lima

Match stats — Corinthians vs Fluminense

57%Possession43%
20Shots10
7On target6
11Corners1

Line-ups

Corinthians 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo SouzaG
  • 2MatheuzinhoD
  • 55I. MachadoD
  • 13Gustavo HenriqueD
  • 21Matheus BiduD
  • 49AndreM
  • 14RanieleM
  • 37Kaio CésarM
  • 8R. GarroM
  • 7BrenoM
  • 10M. DepayF
Substitutes
  • 61DieguinhoM
  • 4João PedroD
  • 51Kauê CamargoG
  • 18Pedro RaulF
  • 11VitinhoF
  • 26F. AngileriD
  • 77J. LingardM
  • 20P. MilansD
  • 23Matheus PereiraM
Coach: Fernando Diniz
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FábioG
  • 2Samuel XavierD
  • 3Thiago SilvaD
  • 29J. MillánD
  • 6RenêD
  • 16NonatoM
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 17A. CanobbioM
  • 32L. AcostaM
  • 90K. SernaM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 35HérculesM
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 44JemmesD
  • 46Julio FidelisD
  • 94OtávioM
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 28RiquelmeF
  • 11J. SavarinoF
Coach: Marcão

Form going into Corinthians vs Fluminense

Corinthians

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
  • L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
  • L0-1Santos30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
  • L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026

Fluminense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
  • W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
  • W2-1Remo22 August 2026
  • W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Corinthians3289153442-833
4Fluminense3315995242+1054

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Fluminense

  • 2 April 2026Fluminense 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 14 September 2025Fluminense 0–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 16 April 2025Corinthians 0–2 FluminenseSerie A
  • 18 August 2024Fluminense 0–0 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 28 April 2024Corinthians 3–0 FluminenseSerie A

The full Corinthians vs Fluminense record →

Leading scorers: Corinthians and Fluminense

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fluminense won 3–1 at Corinthians. The model had leaned towards a win for Corinthians at 41% and given a win for Fluminense 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hulk 24' for Fluminense, Gustavo Henrique 56' for Corinthians, Hulk 76' for Fluminense, Kevin Serna 90+3' for Fluminense.

How the call on Corinthians v Fluminense has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 38% / 32% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Corinthians's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Corinthians win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −3
  3. Fluminense win30%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.