Feyenoord
vs
Utrecht
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Feyenoord 2–0 Utrecht
The model makes it 50% Feyenoord, 27% draw, 23% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Feyenoord 1.96, Utrecht 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Feyenoord vs Utrecht
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Feyenoord wins, grey are draws, red are Utrecht wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Feyenoord vs Utrecht
Feyenoord
- W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
- W5-2away to Cambuur23 August 2026
- D2-2GO Ahead Eagles16 August 2026
Utrecht
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
- L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 14 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Utrecht
- 8 February 2026Utrecht 0–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 5 October 2025Feyenoord 3–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 12 January 2025Feyenoord 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 27 October 2024Utrecht 0–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 31 March 2024Feyenoord 4–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 20 December 2023Feyenoord 2–1 UtrechtKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Feyenoord and Utrecht
Feyenoord
- G. Zechiël5 goals3 assists
- L. Valente3 goals1 assists
- A. Hadj-Moussa3 goals1 assists
Utrecht
- Artem Stepanov5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Feyenoord carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.7 for Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Feyenoord and 0.95 for Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Feyenoord rate 1.04 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Utrecht rate 0.86 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feyenoord a 8.4% chance of the title and Utrecht 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Feyenoord against 0.95 for Utrecht. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.16 for Utrecht.