RB Leipzig
vs
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg
The model makes it 56% RB Leipzig, 21% draw, 23% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.59, FC Augsburg 1.53.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to RB Leipzig: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. RB Leipzig's rating is built from 40 Bundesliga matches and FC Augsburg's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- RB Leipzig are 7th on 9 points from 6 games; FC Augsburg are 10th on 8 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Bayern München.
- FC Augsburg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to SV Elversberg.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Leipzig 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended RB Leipzig 2–1 FC Augsburg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 56% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
What these results say
- RB Leipzig scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Augsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg
- 7 March 2026RB Leipzig 2–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 25 October 2025FC Augsburg 0–6 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 14 February 2025FC Augsburg 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 28 September 2024RB Leipzig 4–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 10 February 2024FC Augsburg 2–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 16 September 2023RB Leipzig 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku41
- A. Nusa33
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch40
- R. Fellhauer30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.88 for FC Augsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.59 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.53 for FC Augsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.33 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Augsburg rate 1.11 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives RB Leipzig a 2.8% chance of the title and FC Augsburg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.53 for FC Augsburg. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.06 for FC Augsburg.
How the model reaches 56% for RB Leipzig to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for RB Leipzig to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, RB Leipzig's ratings add 14 points and FC Augsburg's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage42%+4
- RB Leipzig's ratings56%+14
- FC Augsburg's ratings56%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RB Leipzig at home · FC Augsburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RB LeipzigFC Augsburg
RB Leipzig are 7th after 6 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); FC Augsburg are 10th after 6 (between 1st and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: RB Leipzig 6, FC Augsburg 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
RB Leipzig
- at Union Berlin21 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%
- vs Lens24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 56%
FC Augsburg
- vs FSV Mainz 0522 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim29 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs 1. FC Köln5 Dec · Bundesligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.