FC Thun
vs
Vikingur Reykjavik
The model makes it 65% FC Thun, 18% draw, 17% Vikingur Reykjavik — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Thun 2.58, Vikingur Reykjavik 1.26.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Thun
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Vikingur Reykjavik
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
FC Thun
- M. Gutbub1 goals1 assists
Vikingur Reykjavik
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.12 for Vikingur Reykjavik. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Thun W-L; Vikingur Reykjavik W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for FC Thun and 1.26 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.62 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vikingur Reykjavik rate 0.51 and 2.20.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.26 for Vikingur Reykjavik. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.2 for Vikingur Reykjavik.