Omonia Nicosia
vs
Lincoln Red Imps FC
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 79% Omonia Nicosia, 13% draw, 8% Lincoln Red Imps FC — fair odds of 1.27, 7.69 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 3.23, Lincoln Red Imps FC 1.04.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.19 for Lincoln Red Imps FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Omonia Nicosia W; Lincoln Red Imps FC W-D-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.23 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.04 for Lincoln Red Imps FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 0.85 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lincoln Red Imps FC rate 0.54 and 2.01.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.23 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 1.04 for Lincoln Red Imps FC. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.01 for Lincoln Red Imps FC.