Universitatea Craiova
vs
KuPS
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 51% Universitatea Craiova, 27% draw, 22% KuPS — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.56, KuPS 0.94.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Universitatea Craiova
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
KuPS
- D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gnistan1 August 2026
- W3-1VPS25 July 2026
- W2-0away to SJK18 July 2026
- W4-0away to HJK Helsinki27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 17 | +17 | 40 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Universitatea Craiova
No league goals recorded yet.
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- B. Armah3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.55 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Universitatea Craiova W-L-W; KuPS W-W-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.94 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.75 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.57 and 1.10.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.94 for KuPS. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.1 for KuPS.