Egnatia Rrogozhinë
vs
Shamrock Rovers
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 64% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 18% draw, 18% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 1.56, 5.56 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2.58, Shamrock Rovers 1.35.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Egnatia Rrogozhinë carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.22 for Shamrock Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Egnatia Rrogozhinë D-W-D; Shamrock Rovers L-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.35 for Shamrock Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.70 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shamrock Rovers rate 0.55 and 1.95.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Egnatia Rrogozhinë the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë against 1.35 for Shamrock Rovers. Egnatia Rrogozhinë's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.95 for Shamrock Rovers.