Sonderjyske
vs
Silkeborg
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Sonderjyske 2–1 Silkeborg
The model makes it 37% Sonderjyske, 27% draw, 36% Silkeborg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.80, Silkeborg 1.74.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sonderjyske and Silkeborg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Sonderjyske are bottom on 5 points from 9 games; Silkeborg are 7th on 10 points from 9 games — Superliga.
- Sonderjyske have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Randers FC.
- Silkeborg are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 4-0 win away to Lyngby.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 February 2026, ended Sonderjyske 2–1 Silkeborg.
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sonderjyske at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg
Sonderjyske
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Copenhagen31 August 2026
- L0-3FC Nordsjaelland23 August 2026
Silkeborg
- W4-0away to Lyngby18 September 2026
- D1-1Viborg13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Aarhus5 September 2026
- D1-1FC Midtjylland30 August 2026
- L1-3away to Brondby24 August 2026
What these results say
- Sonderjyske conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Silkeborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 5 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sonderjyske vs Silkeborg
- 16 February 2026Sonderjyske 2–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 31 August 2025Silkeborg 0–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 11 May 2025Silkeborg 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 30 March 2025Sonderjyske 2–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 2 March 2025Sonderjyske 1–3 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 21 July 2024Silkeborg 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
Leading scorers: Sonderjyske and Silkeborg
Sonderjyske
- M. Haidara4 goals
Silkeborg
- O. Ross3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sonderjyske carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.48 for Silkeborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Sonderjyske and 1.74 for Silkeborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sonderjyske rate 0.70 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Silkeborg rate 0.70 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Silkeborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sonderjyske the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sonderjyske against 1.74 for Silkeborg. Sonderjyske's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Silkeborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sonderjyske at home · Silkeborg away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Sonderjyske 9, Silkeborg 9.
Sonderjyske score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Silkeborg have let in 4 there.
Silkeborg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Sonderjyske have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sonderjyske
- at AC Horsens25 Oct · Superligawin 28%
- vs FC Copenhagen2 Nov · Superligawin 23%
- at FC Midtjylland8 Nov · Superligawin 18%
- vs Odense22 Nov · Superligawin 38%
Silkeborg
- vs FC Nordsjaelland25 Oct · Superligawin 30%
- at Odense1 Nov · Superligawin 34%
- vs Lyngby6 Nov · Superligawin 42%
- at AC Horsens22 Nov · Superligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.