Lyngby
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Lyngby 0–1 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 28% Lyngby, 28% draw, 44% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lyngby 1.10, FC Nordsjaelland 1.71.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Lyngby are 10th on 7 points from 9 games; FC Nordsjaelland are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Superliga.
- Lyngby have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Silkeborg.
- FC Nordsjaelland have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Viborg.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Nordsjaelland 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 March 2025, ended Lyngby 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland.
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby
- L0-4Silkeborg18 September 2026
- D1-1Sonderjyske13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Viborg4 September 2026
- D1-1Odense30 August 2026
- L1-2away to AC Horsens23 August 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
- W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lyngby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyngby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyngby conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lyngby | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 16 March 2025Lyngby 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 11 August 2024FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 LyngbySuperliga
- 18 February 2024FC Nordsjaelland 3–2 LyngbySuperliga
- 3 September 2023Lyngby 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 19 February 2023Lyngby 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 1 August 2022FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Lyngby and FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby
- Í. Þorvaldsson3 goals2 assists
FC Nordsjaelland
- A. Lind3 goals1 assist
- H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lyngby carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.7 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Lyngby and 1.71 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyngby rate 0.59 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.78 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lyngby a 0% chance of the title and FC Nordsjaelland 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lyngby against 1.71 for FC Nordsjaelland. Lyngby's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.07 for FC Nordsjaelland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lyngby at home · FC Nordsjaelland away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Lyngby 9, FC Nordsjaelland 9.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lyngby have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lyngby
- at FC Midtjylland25 Oct · Superligawin 18%
- vs Randers FC30 Oct · Superligawin 37%
- at Silkeborg6 Nov · Superligawin 30%
- at Aarhus20 Nov · Superligawin 26%
FC Nordsjaelland
- vs CSKA Sofia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
- at Silkeborg25 Oct · Superligawin 42%
- vs FC Midtjylland1 Nov · Superligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.