23 July 2026, 16:30 UTC

Rīgas FS vs Vestri UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Lnk Sporta Parks, Rīga
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Rīgas FS 4-1 Vestri.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rīgas FS, 49% draw, 23% Vestri — fair odds of 3.57, 2.04 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Vestri v Rīgas FS, 30 Jul →

Rīgas FS went through 5–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Panicassist: J. Ikaunieks
18'
⚽J. Ikaunieksassist: S. Rakic
23'
⚽R. Ndjikiassist: D. Zelenkovs
43'
57'
🔁M. Hagbardssonout: T. G. Hafthorsson
57'
🔁G. Einarssonout: G. Svavarsson
57'
🔁S. Fallout: B. Hermannsson
🔁R. Ndjikiout: D. Lemajic
61'
🔁L. Odishariaout: G. Mankenda
61'
63'
⚽C. Morfelt
⚽D. Lemajicassist: J. Ikaunieks
66'
68'
Elmar Atli Gardarsson
🔁M. Kigursout: M. Sylla
75'
75'
🔁E. Gardarssonout: A. Johannsson
75'
🔁J. Stenssonout: B. Eydal

Line-ups

Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
  • 16Jevgēņijs ŅerugalsG
  • 6Aleksandar FilipovićD
  • 4Roberts VeipsD
  • 43Žiga LipuščekD
  • 18Dmitrijs ZelenkovsM
  • 26Stefan PanićM
  • 81Strahinja RakićM
  • 8Lasha OdishariaM
  • 49Mārtiņš ĶigursM
  • 10Jānis IkaunieksM
  • 15Rostand NdjikiF
Substitutes
  • 77Gauthier MankendaM
  • 22Darko LemajićF
  • 14Mamadou SyllaM
  • 1Rihards MatrevicsG
  • 40Mareks MuizzemnieksG
  • 5Niks SliedeD
  • 23Herdi PrengaD
  • 21Niks DusalijevsM
  • 20Kingsley EmenikeF
Coach: Viktors Morozs
Vestri 4-3-3
  • 1Marvin Darri SteinarssonG
  • 22Elmar Atli GardarssonD
  • 12Thibang PheteD
  • 3EdsonD
  • 45Gudmundur Páll EinarssonD
  • 17Gunnar Jónas HaukssonM
  • 7Jacob StenssonM
  • 18Marinó Steinar HagbarðssonD
  • 77Sergine FallD
  • 19Emmanuel Agyeman DuahM
  • 27Albin MörfeltM
Substitutes
  • 15Guðmundur Arnar SvavarssonD
  • 23Breki Thór HermannssonM
  • 14Birkir EydalD
  • 13Albert Ingi JóhannssonM
  • 33Benedikt Jóhann SnædalG
  • 4Fatai GbadamosiM
  • 6Ibrahima BaldéM
  • 10Þórður Gunnar HafþórssonM
  • 11Johannes SelvenM

The result against the call

Rīgas FS beat Vestri 4–1. The model had leaned towards a draw at 49% and given a win for Rīgas FS 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Panic 18' for Rīgas FS, J. Ikaunieks 23' for Rīgas FS, R. Ndjiki 43' for Rīgas FS, C. Morfelt 63' for Vestri, D. Lemajic 66' for Rīgas FS.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.