Kalmar FF
vs
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Kalmar FF 1–2 AIK Stockholm
The model makes it 29% Kalmar FF, 26% draw, 45% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.30, AIK Stockholm 1.78.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to AIK Stockholm: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Kalmar FF's rating is built from 28 Allsvenskan matches and AIK Stockholm's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Kalmar FF are 13th on 26 points from 28 games; AIK Stockholm are 8th on 41 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Kalmar FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sirius.
- AIK Stockholm have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to BK Hacken.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 June 2026, ended AIK Stockholm 0–2 Kalmar FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm
Has the model earned this number?
AIK Stockholm at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan
- W1-0Sirius8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF2 November 2026
- L0-1Gais29 October 2026
- L0-3IF Brommapojkarna24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Degerfors IF19 October 2026
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan
- W3-2BK Hacken8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Gais2 November 2026
- D2-2IF Elfsborg27 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sirius24 October 2026
- D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026
What these results say
- AIK Stockholm scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 26 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm
- 22 June 2026AIK Stockholm 0–2 Kalmar FFFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2026AIK Stockholm 1–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 21 September 2024Kalmar FF 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 7 July 2024AIK Stockholm 1–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 3 March 2024Kalmar FF 1–1 AIK StockholmSvenska Cupen
- 6 August 2023Kalmar FF 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AIK Stockholm the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kalmar FF against 1.78 for AIK Stockholm. Kalmar FF's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.93 for AIK Stockholm.
How the model reaches 45% for AIK Stockholm to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for AIK Stockholm to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Kalmar FF's ratings add 4 points and AIK Stockholm's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- Kalmar FF's ratings37%+4
- AIK Stockholm's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kalmar FF at home · AIK Stockholm away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Kalmar FF 28, AIK Stockholm 28.
AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.