Regular Season - 29 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF Allsvenskan prediction

Strawberry Arena, Solna

Our model says: AIK Stockholm 2–1 Degerfors IF

The model makes it 59% AIK Stockholm, 22% draw, 19% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 2.42, Degerfors IF 1.19.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to AIK Stockholm: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. AIK Stockholm's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Degerfors IF's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • AIK Stockholm are 8th on 41 points from 28 games; Degerfors IF are 14th on 20 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
  • AIK Stockholm have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to BK Hacken.
  • Degerfors IF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Gais.
  • Last 6 meetings: AIK Stockholm 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Degerfors IF 2–1 AIK Stockholm.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF

64%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AIK Stockholm win Draw Degerfors IF win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 3–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read AIK Stockholm first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

AIK Stockholm at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF

AIK Stockholm

Allsvenskan

  • W3-2BK Hacken8 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Gais2 November 2026
  • D2-2IF Elfsborg27 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sirius24 October 2026
  • D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026

Degerfors IF

Allsvenskan

  • L1-2Gais7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Djurgardens IF1 November 2026
  • L0-3Vasteras SK FK28 October 2026
  • L0-4away to BK Hacken24 October 2026
  • L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026

What these results say

  • AIK Stockholm scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • AIK Stockholm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm had three goals or more.
  • Degerfors IF did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Degerfors IF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8AIK Stockholm2811894649-341
14Degerfors IF2855182348-2520

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Degerfors IF

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 66% today

Win 38%
Draw 61%
Defeat 74%

From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF

  • 23 April 2026Degerfors IF 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 17 January 2026AIK Stockholm 3–3 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 August 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 13 July 2025AIK Stockholm 3–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 14 February 2025AIK Stockholm 1–1 Degerfors IFSvenska Cupen
  • 18 September 2023AIK Stockholm 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove113

Degerfors IF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on AIK Stockholm v Degerfors IF has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is AIK Stockholm's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AIK Stockholm win59%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Degerfors IF win19%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

AIK Stockholm Degerfors IF
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
1.93 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.88
2.42 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AIK Stockholm the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 1.19 for Degerfors IF. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.88 for Degerfors IF.

How the model reaches 59% for AIK Stockholm to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AIK Stockholm to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, AIK Stockholm's ratings add 10 points and Degerfors IF's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%+1
  4. AIK Stockholm's ratings52%+10
  5. Degerfors IF's ratings59%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AIK StockholmDegerfors IF
28Matches28
11W 8D 9LRecord5W 5D 18L
46 1.6 per gameGoals scored23 0.8 per game
49 1.8 per gameGoals conceded48 1.7 per game
4 of 28Clean sheets3 of 28
5 of 28Failed to score13 of 28
3 of 3Penalties scored–
66 2.4 per gameYellow cards53 1.9 per game
4-3-3 7×Usual shape4-4-2 10×

AIK Stockholm at home · Degerfors IF away

14Played14
5W 3D 6LRecord2W 3D 9L
24–31Goals for – against10–26
2 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: AIK Stockholm 28, Degerfors IF 28.

AIK Stockholm scored 4878614
Degerfors IF conceded 10681049

AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 9 there.

Degerfors IF scored 142456
AIK Stockholm conceded 58781010

Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); AIK Stockholm have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

AIK Stockholm

  • at Kalmar FF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 45%

Degerfors IF

  • vs Orgryte IS29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.